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Raiffeisen: Romania will have a budget deficit of 4% and an economic growth of 2.5%

Romania's budget deficit will be about 4% of GDP at the end of the year, according to European standards, Raiffeisen Bank analysts estimate in a report.

"We think it will be difficult for the new government to reduce the budget deficit to 2-2.5% of GDP in 2009, unless radical measures are taken. Based on data available now, we expect to see the public deficit dropping to 4% of GDP in 2009," the report says.For 2010 Raiffeisen estimates a reduction of the public deficit to 3% of GDP.

Last week, the European Commission announced the new macroeconomic prognosis, estimating a deepening of the budget deficit in Romania to 7.5% of GDP in 2009 and 7.9% of GDP next year. Brussels considers the prognosis does not take into account policies the new government has in view when the 2009 budget has not been adopted yet.The government, which will adopt the 2009 budget on Thursday, announced a budget deficit target of 2% of GDP for 2009, but most analysts are skeptical that this objective can be reached when last year there was an unbalance of the public debt of 5.2% of GDP.Romanian economy could grow by 2.5% in 2009, which is less than last year when GDP grew by 7.2%, according to the Raiffeisen report. Analysts anticipate an invigoration of Romanian economy in 2010 when they foresee a real GDP increase by 3.5%.

They estimate a weak evolution of GDP in the last quarter of last year and the forst three months of 2009, but anticipate a slight return of economic activity in the second part of 2009."Uncertainty is very high, but we expect economy to register a positive evolution," Raiffeisen analysts say.The drop of economic activity in the euro area was not seen in Romania in the first part of 2008 when exports continued to grow, industrial output increased rapidly and economic growth was at high level (8.8% in the first quarter of 2008.The situation changed in the second part of the year when recession in the euro area deepened and international financial market stopped functioning normally.

The European Commission estimated in January a growth of Romanian economy by 7.8% in 2008, 1.8% in 2009, a comeback of 2.5% in 2010 and they did not take into account the measures of the new Bucharest government.The National Prognosis Commission estimated a 7.9% increase of Romania's GDP in 2008, 2.5% in 2009 and 4.5% in 2010.

 

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Tags: economic growth raiffeisen deficit budget romania euro

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