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Raiffeisen Bank more optimistic than EBRD

Bank's analysts see a 2.5 per cent economic growth in Romania in 2009

After a Romanian GDP growth by 7.2 per cent in 2008, the pace of growth should slow down to just 2.5 per cent in 2009 and go up to 3.5 per cent in 2010, according to a report published by the Raiffeisen Bank Romania on Tuesday, Agerpres informs.

‘We expect a GDP growth by just 2.5 per cent this year, and all risks show a possible deterioration of the situation, meaning we do not exclude an even lower rate,' Raiffeisen Bank analysts are warning.

Raiffeisen Bank also estimated a 2008 budget deficit of 4.8 per cent of the GDP, 3.8 per cent this year and 3.0 per cent next year in Romania.

‘We believe the new Government will find it very difficult to reduce the budget deficit to 2.0-2.5 per cent of the GDP in 2009, unless some radical measures are taken. Based on the information available at this stage, we expect to see the public deficit go down to about 4 per cent of the GDP in 2009,' say the Raiffeisen Bank Romania analysts.

On Tuesday, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) revised in a negative way the 2009 economic growth estimates in its area of activity (the former communist countries in Eastern Europe and USSR) and forecast a real growth of the gross domestic product of 1.0 per cent for Romania in 2009, compared to the 3.0 per cent anticipated by previous prognosis issued in November 2008. EBRD estimated a GDP growth by 8.0 per cent in Romania in 2008, the highest in Central and South-Eastern Europe and the Baltic States in 2008.

The 2009 draft budget by the Romanian authorities will be based on a 2.5 per cent economic growth, an average inflation rate of about 5.0 per cent, a current account deficit of 10.3 per cent and a budget deficit of 2.0 per cent of the GDP. The exchange rate considered for the forecast is RON 4.0/EUR.

 

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Tags: growth deficit romania raiffeisen

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