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BNR chief economist Lazea: Romania has arguments backing up an economic growth in 2009

Romania has four important fundamentals justifying a reasonable economic growth in 2009, Chief Economist of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) Valentin Lazea told a seminar on Monday on the banking market.

'Romania has four arguments backing up its economic growth in 2009. If Romania fails to manage this growth, none of the countries in its geographical area will manage,' said Lazea.The BNR official explained that one of the arguments for economic growth relates to the fact that Romania does not have a monetary board, which makes that external shocks are taken over by the nominal, not the real economy. At the same time, Romania is the only country in the region, which, along Poland, is relatively independent in terms of energy imports.

'Thirdly, the ratio of exports to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 25 percent. Since exports are 25 percent of the GDP, shocks from other economies, such as France or Germany are not strongly felt in Romania,' said Lazea.

At the same time, loans are making up 40 percent of the GDP in Romania, and a credit crisis affects Romania less that it does other countries in the region.

The BNR chief economist said the main problem facing Romania is its hard to finance external deficit, which send negative signals to foreign investors.

'The deficit was nearly 12.2 percent in 2008, and I believe it has moved close to 13 percent. After September 1, 2006, Romania accepted full convertibility of the capital accounts, and foreign capitals may thus come and leave as they please. That is why a signal has to be given that both the Government and the private sector are taking care of reducing the deficit to a sustainable level, as the first signal to draw such capitals,' said Lazea.

He mentioned that in the absence of such capitals, drawing domestic sources is important, given that, despite high interest rates paid on the local currency, the leu (RON), they continued to decrease in November 2008.

'Currently, the number of RON loans is smaller than the RON deposits, while the ratio of forex loan to forex deposits is 1.35. The level of RON deposits has to be increased, and also the level of RON loans, to the same level as the forex ones, because it is more prudent to borrow in the currency in which you draw your wages,' Lazea concluded.

 

Sursa: http://www.rompress.ro

Tags: romania economic growth percent arguments bnr economist lazea chief

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