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Banking sector expectations - decided today by BNR

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) will proceed successively to the reduction of the interest rate, in small steps, of 0.25 per cent, concurrently with gradual adjustments of the minimum compulsory reserves, considers the chief economist of BCR, Lucian Anghel, Mediafax informs.

Anghel also declared that BNR will maintain all the time a gap of at least 3 per cent between the monetary policy interest rate and inflation. He explained that without a gradual reduction of the interest rate, the Romanian economy cannot recover, especially that in November and December the credit was reduced in nominal terms. The economist estimates that the Romanian economy cannot function, in the current stage, with a one digit growth of the credit. The firms cannot advance if we have a growth of the credit of only 5 per cent this year, concludes Anghel.

He anticipates a reduction of the monetary policy rate already in the session of Wednesday of BNR Board, showing that the measures that will be adopted on Wednesday will be a clue for the way in which the current Government collaborates with the central bank.

BCR economist appreciated that the economic situation will have many uncertainties, but, nevertheless, Romania will remain the only country in the region which will have an economic growth, even if it will be only around 1.2 per cent in 2009, Agerpres informs. BCR chief economist also warned that the unemployment rate could reach 7 per cent of the total manpower in 2009.

On another hand, Anghel estimates that the foreign direct investments remain the main engine of economy. It would be however abnormal to believe that the foreign investors come to Romania with charity actions, he concluded. 2004-2008 were also the years with the highest influx of foreign direct investment. 70 per cent of the foreign direct investments were carried out in this period.

Lucian Anghel considers that Romania does not have much chance at this moment to modify the structure of its exports, taking into account the crisis which affects the social partners from the European Union.

Radu Gratian Ghetea, president of the Romanian Association of Banks and of CEC Bank, considers that the reduction of the minimum reserves and the modification of the interest rate by BNR could give an impulse to the Romanian economy, through the creation of a cheap excess of money that can go to the immediate crediting. He said that presently the interest rates to deposits are exaggerate, considering that in order to sustain such interest rates the banks must obtain ever bigger profit margins in order to back crediting and deposits.

In his turn, Mihai Tanasescu, representative of Romania with IMF, declared that the big interest rates from the market reflect the lack of confidence in the banking system, The Money Channel informs. Even if the banks requested BNR to cut the monetary policy interest rate, in order to issue the signal for decrease of the interest rates in the market, in order to make such a decision it is necessary to make a serious analysis of all the factors.

 

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Tags: anghel bnr interest romania cec bcr

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