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Central Bank maintains predictions of economic growth in 2009

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) maintained its economic growth forecast for 2009, the Central Bank Governor Mugur Isarescu said.

'The BNR forecast regarding the economic growth in 2009 has been maintained. We are not in conflict with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we appreciate their report, because it's their job to be the devil's advocate and consider the most pessimistic scenario,' Isarescu aid on Friday at the presentation of a quarterly report on inflation.

The Government has estimated a 2.5 economic growth in 2009, the European Commission anticipates an economic growth of 1.8 percent per year while the IMF warned that Romania might enter recession in 2009.

In their turn, some economic analysts say Romania will not see an economic growth in 2009 and that the sudden adjustment of the budget deficit cannot be done without recession.

According to Isarescu, the BNR has based its 2009 projection, on the fact that Romania's exports weigh little in the GDP and the financial mediation is not as high as in other countries, as well as on the large volume of structural funds that can be drawn this year.

Other reasons the Central Bank has taken into account are the structure of the budget submitted to parliament, allotting large amounts to public investment, the rise in revenues in the second half off 2008, a substantial increase in the non-governmental loans over November-December 2008 and January 2009, following higher fiscal deficit by 3 percent of the GDP.

How brutal the slowdown of Romanian economy has been, cannot be assessed at present, after the record growth in the previous period, Isarescu explained.

 

Sursa: http://www.rompress.ro

Tags: growth economic central bnr

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