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BNR affirms its 2009 economic growth projection

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) is expecting an economic growth of 2.3 percent in Romania in 2009.

'The National Bank of Romania (BNR) 2009 economic projection stays in positive territory. We are in no conflict with the International Monetary Fund (IMF); we appreciate their report because it is their duty to be the devil's advocate and take into account the gloomiest scenario,' says BNR Governor Isarescu.

The Government is banking on an economic growth of 2.5 percent in 2009, whereas the European Commission is expecting an economic growth of 1.8 percent, and the IMF has warned Romania might enter a recession in 2009.

Some business analysts are also arguing that Romania will not witness economic growth in 2009, and that no sudden adjustment in the Government deficit can be performed without triggering a recession.

Isarescu says that in working out its projection, BNR has taken into account the fact that the ratio of exports to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Romania is low and financial intermediation is more reduced than in other countries, and there is a large amount of structural funds available for the country this year.

BNR explains that the structure of the Budget submitted to Parliament for approval, where substantially larger amounts are earmarked for pubic investments, a surge in the Government revenues in the second half of 2008, a substantial rise in non-governmental credit in November-December 2008 and January 2009 following a 3-percent-of-the-GDP widening of the tax deficit, were further reasons for the BNR economic growth projection.

On the other hand, Isarescu says there is not knowing now how brutal the slowdown of the Romanian economy will be after the record economic growth that has preceded it.

 

Sursa: http://www.rompress.ro

Tags: bnr growth economic romania projection

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