Stiri	Stiri afaceri	Stiri companii	Evenimente de afaceri

Romania could call upon an external loan in the second semester

Romania might need an external debt especially in the second half of the year, its value depending on how much the balance of payments gap will be adjusted, declared Valentin Lazea, chief economist with the central bank BNR. Lazea warned though that to obtain such a loan, the Parliament should leave unchanged the 2009 budget bill, including the salary policy.

Once the budget is approved, Romania should focus on implementing it and on gradually relaxing the monetary policy, all towards the end of contracting a loan from an international institution, after talking the matter through with the European Commission.The amount to be borrowed depends on how extensive the external gap adjustment will be. "It's all whether the current account deficit will be reduced orderly. We could lower it from 12.5 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008 to 7-8 percent this year."

Lazea mentioned that the country's short-term external debt stands now at 24 billion euros, to mature in the second semester, while the medium and long-term external debt amounts to 49.7 billion euros.

The central bank published this morning the data on Romania's 2008 balance of payments. The external gap advanced by 1.2 percent year-on-year to 16.9 billion euros. Reported to the last estimate of the GDP of 513.2 billion euros, last year's external gap makes for 12.1 percent of the GDP.

Lazea wants a strict salary policy according to the budget bill

The salary policy must be executed according to the 2009 budget and should also answer to the negotiations between the government and the social partners programmed for April.On February 5, after the government approved the budget draft, Prime Minister Emil Boc declared that the public salaries increases will be discussed with the social partners only starting with April 15.

Lazea stressed that fiscal and salary policies must be strict so that the central bank is able to relax the monetary policy, as the country does not afford to replicate the measures taken by the Great Britain and the United States, which relaxed their fiscal policy and stimulated demand.

"What the U.S. plans to do we already did through that 3 percent of the GDP fiscal incentive. That money is now in people's pockets," said Lazea, referring to the 2008 budget gap of 5.2 percent of the GDP, which overcame by a good deal the government target of 2.3 percent of the GDP. He added that another huge fiscal incentive was the fuel price cut.

The current exchange rate is not in line with Romania's economic fundamentals

The level of the exchange rate cannot be supported by the country's economic fundamentals, as neither was the rate registered in July 2007, warns Lazea.The leu gained in on the euro between November 2004 and July 2007 thanks to increases in productivity, to the EU accession and to the complete liberalization of the capital account. The leu moved then from over 4.1 to 3.11 lei per euro. Later on, the national currency entered a downturn and reached a historical minimum of 4.3127 per euro on January 22, according to the BNR reference exchange rate.Among the factors leading to the leu's fall, Lazea mentioned the investors' increased risk aversion, salary increases over the labor productivity earnings and the country's deepening internal disequilibriums.

Some banks should be recapitalized if the leu plunges

Some Romanian banks may have to be recapitalized if the national currency falls more than it already did, the problem being already known to managers of credit institutions, thinks Lazea.

"Traders are used to making profit by speculations and they can't keep their hands in their pockets. They are like yupee-guys who never learn their lesson, even if bank managers are aware," depicted Lazea.The BNR vice governor Cristian Popa recently declared that the solvency of the banking system improved during the last quarter of 2008, advancing by about 0.5 percentage points to 12.5 percent, over the recommended level of 8 percent.

Banks should compensate the auto and real estate decline by financing the infrastructure

The BNR chief economist also advises banks to focus this year on infrastructure, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, informatics and on the food industry, to balance the decline of the auto and real estate markets.He added that banks should adjust their portfolios to create an equilibrium between loans and deposits, the rapport now standing at 1.3."In euros, the loans-deposits rapport is of 2 to 1 and in lei it reached 0.95. Banks need to reduce loans or increase deposits, in one way or another."He declared that the central bank's decision to keep minimum mandatory reserves for foreign currency passives at 40 percent and at 18 percent for lei passives was influenced by the fact that 54 percent of the non-governmental loan is in foreign currencies and mostly in euros.

 

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: percent policy euros their banks salary budget second external romania lazea should euro bnr