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Albu: If Romanian economy decreased, a bigger shock than in EU western countries

The business circles from Romania are not accustomed to operate in conditions of economic decrease, and if the economy decreases, the financial crisis deepens, the shock will be bigger than in the EU western countries, declared Lucian Albu, general director Institute for Economic Forecasting, Mediafax informs. Albu estimates that the current economic crisis from Romania will "extinguish" next year, stressing that the periods of crisis are much smaller than those with an economic "impetus."

According to the Convergence Programme edition 2008, the Romanian economy could go into recession for the first time after nine years, if the crisis effects enhance, in case of bad climate conditions in agriculture, with draught or floods, and of unfavourable evolution of the international prices of oil, gas or food. Beyond the risk scenario, the convergence programme stipulates for this year a GDP rising in real terms 2.5 per cent against 2008, but with the possibility of a real growth of GDP below 1 per cent in the first quarter. According to the most recent estimates of the National Forecasting Commission, the economy of Romania will advance 2.5 per cent in 2009 and 4.5 per cent next year.

BRD: Romania should have borne this economic correction also without crisis

Romania should have borne this economic correction even in the absence of a world crisis, and it is an advantage that it came up in the context in which it is a member state of the European Union, declared yesterday the deputy general director of BRD, Claudiu Cercel. On another hand, he pointed out that Romania was unlucky through the fact that the effects of the crisis begin to be felt in an electoral year and for this reason there is this problem, on the funding market. Ion Blanculescu, general manager of the firm Consultancy and Financial Investments, defined the current crisis as a return to normal. He considers that all the sectors from Romania will be affected by the crisis, Education included, in the conditions in which signals that the universities have begun to reduce the activities already appeared. On another hand, Adrian Apolzan, director with ING, considers than in a way or another all the sectors from the economy will be affected.

Technically, Romania will probably register a recession, after the GDP dropped in the last three months of 2008 by 3 per cent against the previous quarter, if the data are adjusted seasonally, the chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank, Ionut Dumitru, declared yesterday.

 

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Tags: crisis economy economic romania ing brd