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Central Bank Governor: Romania will have a positive economic growth in 2009

Romania will have a positive economic growth in 2009, anticipated the Romania Central Bank (BNR) governor, Mugur Isarescu, on Thursday. According to the official, Romania will only see a crisis peak, not a "U-shaped", long term crisis.

"When I say that I have a positive view on Romania's growth, it's not because I don't see a strong deceleration, but because I hope we'll have a crisis peak, not an U-shaped graphic", said Mugur Isarescu.

Isarescu's main statements:

- The negative economic growth of 4%, discussed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an assumption, a worst case scenario. "It is not a prophecy".

- The amount we borrow from the IMF is 11.4 SDR (Special Drawing Rights);

- Considering only the public arrangements, the cash going to public institutions, we speak about 18.95 million Euros;

- Adding the possible loans for the private sector, we speak about 19.95 billion Euros.

- We can also add the European Investments Bank, 1.5 billion Euros per year, but EIB didn't impose the existence of the IMF agreement as a must;

- The amount, including the EIB loan, that Romania will receive in the next two years is over 20 billion Euros.- Romania has been living, during the past two or three year, out of foreign resources, attracted thrugh direct investments, portfolio investments or loans;

- Foreign investments in Romania will decrease some 50%, around 4.5 billion Euros.

- Capital entries and exists will be balanced;

- The negative economic growth can be avoided through adjusting an economy that got used to massive foreign capital entries or to adjust both the economy and the payment balance.

 

Romania '09 FDI Seen Halved At EUR4.5B

Foreign direct investments in Romania are seen halved in 2009, between EUR4 billion and EUR4.5 billion, compared with EUR8 billion in 2008, central bank governor Mugur Isarescu said Thursday.

In January however, Romania attracted FDI worth of EUR912 million, 51.2% higher on the year.

 

Agreement with IMF forged for controlled economic adjustment

The loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was concluded as a means for a controlled economic adjustment, that should be less felt by the poor, the governor Mugur Isarescu said on Thursday. 'This agreement with the IMF it meant to help us reach a balance between controlled economic adjustment and financing' Isarescu said.Moreover, the BNR governor pointed out that, as regards the loan with the IMF, 'costs can be distributed by a manner controlled through policies, able to put things in perspective. The real costs are in fact much smaller. All private financing entering Romania had costs of 4, 5 or 6 percent. As far as the loan is concerned, we talk about costs of 3-4 percent. Interests have dropped internationally, but not for countries like Romania,' Isarescu said.

 

Romania sets target deficit of 3 pc of GDP

Romania sets the public deficit target in real terms at 3 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), under conditions in which part of unemployment will not go away, stated on Thursday Mugur Isarescu.'A 4.6 percent deficit, given an economic growth of minus 4 percent, from the structural standpoint is tighter than a minus 2 percent deficit, at an economic growth of 2 percent. Limiting the economic growth through a negative scenario construction supposes social implications. Part of unemployment cannot go away', said Mugur Isarescu.

BNR Governor pointed out he expects an economic recovery this spring.'We want to bring the public deficit in real terms to 3 percent', he said. Private sector deficit was cut in 2008 from 11 percent to 8 percent. As for the amplification of unemployment rate, BNR Governor explained that 'all the more so the structural programmes are implemented they stimulate the private sector and the unemployment growth rate is lower'.

 

Romania stays on safe side of economic evolution in 2009

Romania will remain on the safe side in 2009 in terms of economic evolution, after the agreement to be concluded with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), governor Mugur Isarescu said on Thursday.

'Thanks to this agreement, Romania will stay on the safe side in terms of economic evolution this year. The loan agreement will give us more time to do what we need to do, that is to attract structural funds and go ahead with the reforms,' the BNR governor said.Moreover, the BNR official said Romania's short-term debt will shrink, but that the country's reserves will not grow. Romania, in the last three years, has fed only on foreign investment, he explained.'If Romania had managed to draw the pre-accession and structural funds, it would have only needed another 9 billion euro, and for that amount a loan would have been unnecessary,' Isarescu said.

 

Isarescu: 0 - 1 economic growth estimated for 2010

Romania will have an economic growth between zero and one percent in 2010, according to estimations contained by the loan programme assumed by the Romanian side in the framework of its agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), announced Mugur Isarescu. 'Estimations show that Romania may register a growth of 0 - 1 percent for 2010', he said . 'An uncontrolled adjustment can take place without the intervention of political forces. Obvious adjustments will affect those well paid', he said. As well, BNR Governor pointed out that stabilization of the exchange rate for euro around 4.29 lei could be an effect of the controlled adjustment.

Current account deficit to stand at 8-9 pc of GDP The current account deficit will stand at 8-9 percent of the GDP, Romania's Central Bank (BNR) governor Mugur Isarescu said on Thursday.The current account deficit amounted to 20 billion euros, the capital costs scored a bln. 20 euro surplus and the capital inflows stood at 4-5-6 billion euros. We do not expect net outflows of private capital, Governor Isarescu added.

 

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: romania isarescu growth economic governor capital foreign agreement controlled percent deficit investments adjustment euros bnr positive mugur thursday private central billion euro

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