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Monthly inflation reduced in March at 0.2- 0.3% as a result of exchange rate stability – analysts

Monthly inflation reduced from 0.88% in February to 0.20 - 0.3% in March, while the annual rate dropped from 6.89% to 6.4 - 6.5% as the exchange rate stabilized and domestic demand calmed down, according to the analysts interviewed on Wednesday by Mediafax.

The National Statistics Institute will publish on Friday April 10th, the data regarding the indices of the consumption prices for March.

Both the ING economist Nicolaie Chidesciuc, as well as the head-economist of Raiffeisen Bank Romania Ionut Dumitru consider that the inflation rate was in March 0.3%, 6.5% respectively in annual terms. "Demand was in decrease and acted to limit inflation and the leu did not depreciate anymore", Chidesciuc said, who expected the disinflationist process to continue until the middle of the year.

Dumitru anticipates a calming down of inflationist pressure on the part of the exchange rate until the end of the first quarter and expects a slowing down of the aggregate demand to help the disinflationist process over the second part of the year.

"I don't believe in new depreciations on the part of the exchange rate" Dumitru said. Thus, the economist estimates that inflation will be 4.5% at the end of the year and will be between the interval targeted by the National Bank of 2.5 - 4.5%. On the other hand, Chidesciuc anticipates a reversal of the disinflationist process after the second half of 2009, on the basis of an effect of negative basis in the agricultural sector, which will pressure the price of food.

At the same time, the representative of ING expects a strong depreciation of the leu over the third quarter and an increase of administered prices. Consumption prices grew in February by 0.88% against 1.24% during the first month of 2009 and the annual rate went up from 6.71% to 6.89% as accentuated increases of price happened in drugs, fuels and thermal energy.

According to the economist of Royal Bank of Scotland Catalina Constantinescu who anticipates an inflation of 0.2% in March and an annual rate of 6.4% there will be more reduced growth as compared to February for drugs and fuels, but on the side of services as well, as a result of slowing down of exchange rate depreciation. In February prices for food grew by 0.3% and non-food grew by 1.3% and services tariffs advanced by 1%. The main inflation in the category of non-food was in - drugs with prices growing by 6.47%, followed by fuels ( 3.29%) and thermal energy ( 2.31%).

According to BNR data,the average exchange rate against the euro was 4.2821 units in March, almost unchanged against the level of February, of 4.2839 units. The National Bank of Romania settled for 2009 an inflation target of 3.5% with a variation interval of one percentage and estimates that the indicator will be placed at 4.5% in December. The annual rate of inflation of each quarter will be the performance criterion in agreement with IMF and the surpassing by two percentage points of the centrally established level will need new measures to be adopted as an obligation to continue the programme.

The target for 2009 was settled at 4.5% plus/minus one percentage point. By agreement with IMF there were established performance criteria for June and September 2009 when the annual rate of inflation should be between an interval of plus/minus one percentage point against the central level established at 6.4%, 5.7% respectively.

 

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: annual prices inflation february exchange reduced march euro ing bnr

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