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BCR sees euro worth RON 4.10 in June

Banca Comerciala Roamna (BCR), the largest bank in Romania, has become more optimistic about the future developments in the exchange rate of the local currency, the leu (RON), especially after the first installment of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan has been disbursed to Romania for the forex reserves of the National Bank of Romania (BNR). Consequently, it sees the single European currency, the euro, worth RON 4.10 in June, down from a previous value of RON 4.30, according to a report of Erste Group, BCR's parent, daily Ziarul financiar reports.

BCR analysts have reaffirmed the scenario of a future reversal of the appreciation trend, but the anticipated peak of the depreciation expected for September has been downwardly adjusted to RON 4.30, from a previous RON 4.40. Their estimates for December read RON 4.30 to the euro and a future bout of appreciation in 2010.

Based on information collected over the past months, BCR has also adjusted its estimates of the main 2009 macroeconomic indicators, speaking now of a 2.1 percent contraction of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared with a previous estimate of an 1.2-percent economic growth.

BCR analysts are also expecting unemployment to get worse, which should now go up to 7.2 percent, which is one percentage point over the previous estimate. Unemployment was already 5.6 percent in March 2009, up from 4.1 percent in March 2008.

Recession should also trigger a stronger correction of the foreign-trade deficit to 8.2 percent of the GDP, compared with a previous estimate of 9.4 percent of the GDP.

The foreign trade deficit for the first two months of 2009 reached only 614 million euros, down 75 percent from the same period of the year before.As regards the Romanian Government's deficit, BCR agrees with the official estimate of 4.6 percent of the GDP, which should be achieved under the financial arrangement with the IMF that requires quarterly monitoring of the deficit and taking measures to correct when slippages occur. BCR annual inflation estimate is reaffirmed at 5.4 percent.

 

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: percent bcr euro previous estimate bnr

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