Deloitte survey: Top CEOs keep their interest for Romania
Nine o'Clock - 29 Mai 2009
42 pc of managers answered they would resort to layoffs, while 25 pc said they would cut salaries, rather than sacking employees.
Top executive managers maintain their long-term commitment for Romania, in spite of a difficult year caused by the global economic crisis. However, they emphasize the stringent need for the government taking an active stance, finds a survey named "Economy at the crossroads: strategies to get past the critical point" - the first analysis of the local business environment, from a CEO perspective, released by Deloitte Romania. With the abrupt decline interrupting their dynamic growth, companies in Romania now turn their eyes toward internal structures and try to remediate the problems of inefficiency that accumulated in years. "The general feeling of CEOs interviewed by Deloitte is that the current economic decline, though caused by global events, is in fact a necessary correction that had to happen," says Antonis Ioannides, Transaction Services Partner, Deloitte Financial Advisory. "Many companies that were ineffectively managed for several years now have the chance to optimize their operations. Obviously, year 2009 won't see an increase, but the CEOs are confident in the long-term prospects of their businesses and in the local market as a whole."
Bankers expect to be the first who will get out of crisis, even before the real economy, as early as Q4 this year. The majority of top managers in the economy however see the moment of getting out of recession somewhere in the beginning of next year, with the most optimist being the managers of medical services companies, and the most pessimistic being those in the real-estate and construction industries and FMCG, who see the crisis end late in 2010, the Deloitte Romania survey reads. In the real-estate sector, market goes through a natural process of eliminating the weak spots, before recovering in 2010. Managers from the energy sector changed their optics and moved from long-term to medium and short-term strategies. The decline of demand significantly hit the FMCG operators, where Deloitte analysts see a consolidation of the sector in the second half of the year.
Executives from telecom and the medical market - two crisis-proof sectors, are betting on expansion strategies, based on solid demand, even though they too can feel a decrease of consumption. The pharma sector is waiting for consolidation. "The economic crisis' effects start to be experienced in the local market, reflected into lower growth rates than in the previous times for broadband internet and TV services," said Yorgos Ioannidis, CEO of Romtelecom.
At the question "What measures would you take to cut expenses with personnel," 42 pc of managers answered they would resort to layoffs, 25 pc said they would make wage cuts rather than layoffs, and 14 pc would both make people redundant and cut salaries. Some 6 pc of CEOs did not want to answer and chose none of the three options of the survey.
Another survey, conducted by the National Statistics Institute (INS), shows that managers of companies operating in Romania are expecting a decrease of the number of employees in all economic sectors for the May-July interval, compared to previous months, with the most severe cuts to be made by the processing industry and the retail sector.
Managers want the state to get more involved
One of the main challenges identified by most respondents was the government's role in the economy, as the participants voiced their wish to see the state getting more involved, together with real actions and a long-term planning. Infrastructure works might represent a good starting point with this respect. "Deloitte repeatedly outlined the potential of Public Private Partnership (PPP) type projects and discussions with the CEOs of Romania's most important companies only confirmed the interest held by the Romanian business environment and its willingness to get involved in such projects," pointed out George Mucibabici, the president of Deloitte Romania. "As a result, infrastructure as a whole - from the much-debated transport infrastructure to public administration, urban development, waste management, education, health, sport and leisure facilities etc. - becomes a golden opportunity for Romania in such difficult times".
In parallel, the private sector is waiting for a robust and active wave of consolidation, as most respondents anticipate this for the second half of 2009 or next year. "The M&A market is still waiting, largely because the players must first undergo a natural selection process and eliminate the weak players, but also because there continues to exist an important imbalance between the price-related expectations of both sellers and buyers," Antonis Ioannides explains.
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