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ING: 4.5 lei for one euro, at second half-end

Leul - Romania's national currency - is to lose up to 4.5 units versus the euro, at the end of the second half of 2009, to be followed by a slight appreciation, ING Bank experts's analysis estimates.

Starting with the first half 2010, leul is to recover the lost ground versus the euro, up to 4.15 lei for one euro, appreciate ING analysts in a report released on Monday. In August, the exchange rate is to go below 4.25 lei for one euro and in the following three months leul is to go down to 4.30 for one euro.

On June 15, Romania's National Bank (BNR) announced a reference rate of 4.2116 lei for one euro. The highest exchange rate, of 4.3127 lei for one euro, was announced on Jan. 22, 2009.

'On the short term, every negative news is expected to have a minimal impact upon the local currency, given BNR decision to keep a stable exchange rate', says the report. ING analysts consider that a new cut of the monetary policy rate by 0.5 percentage points, to 9 percent, will not have a significant impact upon the exchange rate.

'Risks related to an eventual strong sale of leu towards this year-end, or the start of 2010, are pretty high. The first report within the IMF programme is expected till Sept. 15 and do not raise real risks. Nevertheless, risks are higher for evaluations in Dec. and March, after some problems might appear both as for the budget deficit and inflation', says ING analysts.

 

Sursa: http://www.rompress.ro

Tags: euro ing bnr

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