Stiri	Stiri afaceri	Stiri companii	Evenimente de afaceri

FMI revision puts Romanian economic contraction at 7-8pc

The IMF is working on a new macro-economic framework for Romania, in the context of the first evaluation of the stand-by agreement in early August which, among other things, forecasts a contraction of the Romanian economy by 7-8 per cent from the initial prognosis of 4.1 per cent, official sources say according to Mediafax.

‘The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is now working on a new macro-economic framework for Romania, in the context of the first evaluation of the stand-by agreement scheduled for the beginning of August. The new prognosis of economic decrease taken into account in the new framework is somewhere between seven and eight per cent. The IMF has not yet set the exact figure, waiting for economic performance data regarding Q2, but, based on the information gathered so far, the new IMF estimation will be in that region. The other macro-economic indicators will most likely be amended as well, but the adjustment of the current account deficit and of the inflation rate will be downward' say sources who will attend talks with the IMF in August.

The Romanian economy shrank by 6.2 per cent in Q1 compared to Q1 2008, but there are economists who think the GDP could drop even below that figure in the next quarters. The prognosis the IMF published after the closure of negotiations with the Romanian authorities in March indicates an economic contraction by 4.1 per cent of the GDP in 2009. The budget deficit targets are as follows: RON 14.5 bn at the end of June (2.73 per cent of the GDP) and RON 18.6 bn (3.5 per cent of the GDP) at the end of the first nine months.

According to preliminary data, revenues to the general consolidated budget totalled RON 77.23 bn and expenditures were RON 91.65 bn. In the context of the agreement with the IMF, the general consolidated budget revenues are estimated to be RON 77.35 bn at the end of June and RON 120.145 bn at the end of September. The revenue target for the entire year - RON 166.72 bn - is higher by five billion than the one for 2008, excluding grants. In respect of expenditures, the indicative targets set by the IMF show a six-month total of RON 87.5 bn and a nine-month total of RON 132.35 bn. The 2009 target of RON 182.72 bn is very close to the one in 2008 which was RON 182.41 bn. An IMF delegation will travel to Bucharest in the beginning of August for a first evaluation of the stand-by agreement approved by the Board of the organisation in May.

Steep GDP fall takes romanian analysts by surprise

The steep decline of the economy in Q1 was primarily the result of a poor performance of the industry and services, making it even more difficult to fulfil the 2009 prognosis agreed on with the IMF and with the EC, analysts say, stating they have been taken by surprise by the magnitude of the GDP fall, the ‘Capital' magazine informs. ‘Results have been below our expectations and below the market's expectations, so we are considering revising this year's GDP negatively. The industry and services have been the first to trigger such an economic contraction, and the modest positive performance of constructions and agriculture has been unable to balance Q1 results, also because they have a small weight in the GDP. It's becoming more obvious that Romanians have changed consumption patterns and that they are now more prone to saving' Volksbank Chief-Economist Melania Hancila has stated according to the ‘Capital'.

 

Sursa: http://www.nineoclock.ro

Tags: first contraction economic romanian fmi

Articole similare