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Coface: ‘World economy to shrink by 2.5 per cent in 2009’

The new Coface economic growth forecast published yesterday considers a contraction of the 6.6 per cent growth registered between 2007 and 2009, reads a press release. Coface forecast -2.5 per cent recession and a growth recovery stabilised at about 1.7 per cent in 2010. Having downgraded 22 countries in January and then 47 in April, Coface is now downgrading 13 countries, all being small and medium-sized economies that are very dependent upon the international trade. Noticeable recession end will be most likely registered, followed by a small and weak ‘L-shaped' recovery.

Coface forecast a -2.5 per cent world recession in 2009 (industrialised countries: -3.9 per cent and emergent countries: +0.7 per cent and a positive but weak growth by 1.7 per cent in 2010: +0.5 per cent - the industrialised countries and +4.1 per cent - the emergent economies. The revised forecast proposes a steeper growth decline compared to the prognosis issued at the beginning of the year and estimates the fall will end in the coming weeks.

‘Romania's economic recession in respect of its GDP structure is caused by the processing industry and particularly by selected sectors of the industry. The relatively positive trend has been supported by five sectors: manufacturing of other means of transport and wood processing, manufacturing of wood and Lombardy poplar, except furniture, manufacturing of knit items from straw and other vegetal materials - all being well-known specialisations of the Romanian industry,' Professor Ph.D. Cezar Mereuta states in an assessment of the formation of the GDP broken down into different categories of resources, based on available data referring to the 1991-2008 period.

‘An encouraging fact is that, during the four merged consecutive periods, the processing industrial production indexes grew from 79.3 per cent to 86.1 per cent, results which are greatly due to the increase of the industrial production of Automobile Dacia that needs to be supported by preventing artificial barriers to production (like taxes, for examples). The continuation of the trend in the next periods, even at low rates of about 2 per cent per period, would be the most fortunate option for the Romanian economy that could stay in the lead in 2009 with GDP percentage indexes from 98 to 102. However, the likelihood of this situation is quite low, because of the unforeseeable market circumstances. Under real conditions, to reach the annual -4 per cent forecast with improving chances according to climate conditions and to unpredicted favourable development of certain sectors, one of the most important strategic targets is to increase annual production indexes up to 80 per cent for five crucial sectors of the processing industry,' Cezar Mereuta says.

 

Sursa: http://www.nineoclock.ro/

Tags: countries forecast growth coface

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