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Dorin Mantescu, the macroeconomist of the finances: We will feel the effects of the crisis for 20 years

Next year we will not get rid of the recession and the effects of the present crisis will extend on at least 20 years Dorin Mantescu, the head of the general department for macroeconomics and financial policies of the ministry of finances said in an interview for Money.ro. He is also one of the most important persons in the negotiations with IMF and the European Commission.

Mantescu is the first official of the present government who says that 2010 will bring negative increase for the Romanian economy, the estimates up to now implying stagnation or very light increase. The specialist of finances thinks that next year we will not get our of recession, mainly because of the late reaction of the economy to foreign evolutions. " It will be a small contraction, in 2010, by comparision to what happened this year. 2009 is the most difficult. A drop from plus 7% to minus 7% or minus 7.5% as it will be this year. Probabily the economy will contract next year with only 2%" Mantescu stated.

« Creditation resources will not be the ones of the previous period. This blackens the perspectives of a swift coming back of the economy. The situation of creditation and macroeconomics from before the crisis will not be met against for the next 20 years. It is a different landscape. The financing costs will be higher. This is the main effect of the crisis we face" Mantescu stated for Money.ro.The crisis is an opportunity for Romania, as there are multiple objectives to reach on a short and medium term; the limitation of the recession effects on the economy, rationalization of public expenditure, public investment increase together with the diminution of the budgetary deficit and the Maastricht criteria - especially those connected to inflation and interests - and accession to the euro zone in 2014, Mantescu said.

A contraction of the economy in 2010 is inevitable In his opinion, the global economy is already coming back. The first to start is the US. Packages of monetary and fiscal measures in the US and Europe will have as a result the limitation of the crisis and relaunching of the economies. But, the problem of creditation will become a very serious one. What could be seen in those macro packages is the substantial increase of budgetary deficits and public debt. They are to be financed by other states. The biggest economies in the West have total deficits of over 2,000 billion dollars at this date. But when the state gets credits, the credit resource in the economy drops dramatically. The credits for the population and the companies will be very expensive for a long period of time. It is valid for Romania as well.

 

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: years economy mantescu crisis effects finances euro