2009 GDP adjusted to RON 497.3 bln
Nine o'Clock - 12 August 2009
Considering the commitment to cut the expenditures on wages by 0.6 per cent of GDP, we're talking about a high number of personnel to be sacked until mid-2010, the Finance Minister told a press conference on Tuesday.
The 2009 GDP has been adjusted to RON 497.3 bln compared to the RON 531.25 bln level initially approved in the agreement with the IMF, Finance Minister Gheorghe Pogea announced yesterday, Agerpres informs. He added that the GDP will register a real contraction of 8-8.5 per cent, with the inflation set to stand at an annual average of 4.3 per cent. The current account deficit was set at 5.5 per cent.
The budget revenues are expected to drop by RON 17.5 bln in 2009 because of the unfavorable economic conditions, Gheorghe Pogea added, Agerpres informs. On the other hand, Romanian economy will shrink by 7.5 per cent this year and by 2 per cent in 2010, analysts of Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch believe, according to Money Channel TV. In their previous report, the bank's analysts were expecting a 6.4 per cent drop in economy this year and a further contraction by 2.5 per cent in 2010.
Finance Minister pointed out that the VAT revenues are estimated to drop by RON 4.3 bln, the social insurances by RON 5.5 bln and the non-fiscal revenues by RON 4.2 bln. ‘Concerning the tax exemption for reinvested profit, its negative impact on revenues would stand at RON 140 M' Pogea stated. The Government will conduct a budget rectification in August by cutting the expenditures on wages, prizes, bonuses and services by RON 4.5 bln, by hiking the budget of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MAI), the budget for pensions and unemployment but also by hiking the state guarantees, Finance Minister Gheorghe Pogea stated, Mediafax informs.
In other developments, all public sector employees will experience the reduction of their work period by the equivalent of 10 days in the September - November period, a move that will lead to a 0.3 per cent of GDP (RON 1.5 bln) drop in expenditures, Gheorghe Pogea added.
For that, the public sector employees will either have 10 days of holiday without getting paid, or they will have their work schedule reduced from 8 to 6 hours. Various combinations could be made, depending on the specificities of each activity. After offering the 10 days of holiday the budgetary impact will stand at 0.3 per cent of GDP' Pogea stated. Likewise, he pointed out that the employees won't be paid for their extra hours, being compensated through leisure time instead, and their bonuses have been cancelled. ‘These measures are taken in order to limit the hiking of the budget deficit and in order to get through the crisis,' Pogea stated.
Finance Minister Gheorghe Pogea also stated yesterday that although the letter of intent filed to the IMF does not specify the size of the personnel cuts, the commitment to cut the expenditures by 0.6 per cent of GDP will entail a high number of fired employees, Mediafax informs. ‘By mid-2010, by June next year, I can assure you that, considering the commitment to reduce the expenditures on wages by 0.6 per cent of GDP, we are talking about a high number of sacked employees. We're not talking merely about 1,000 - 2,000 persons' Pogea answered when asked whether an exact number of layoffs were agreed with the IMF.
On the other hand, CFR Passengers will receive RON 364 M for the back payments to its suppliers, particularly to its electric energy supplier, Gheorghe Pogea added yesterday according to Agerpres. He stated that the pension reform will also be solved by the end of December 2009. The 2 per cent hike of the pension point will represent a budgetary effort of RON 200 M, so that the pensions' budget will be supplemented by a total of RON 500 M, Mediafax informs.
State guarantees supplemented by EUR 400 M
The state guarantees will be supplemented by EUR 400 M this year exclusively for the co-financing of European Union projects, and by EUR 200 M in 2010, Finance Minister Gheorghe Pogea stated for Mediafax.
The budget expenditures for projects that are financed from non-reimbursable external funds have totaled RON 1.15 bln (approximately EUR 275 M) in Q1, representing 15 per cent of the level provisioned in the 2009 budget.
Starting in 2010, the budget of state owned companies will have to be approved within 15 working days after the Parliament offers its green light for the state budget. The transfer of money from capital expenditures to personnel expenditures will be forbidden, Finance Minister Gheorghe Pogea stated for Mediafax on Tuesday.
The Minister added that a series of measures that will seek to restructure public expenditures will be applied in 2010. The measures will entail the reduction of personnel costs by 0.66 per cent of GDP, the reform of the wage system through the adoption of the blanket wage law, the pension reform that should be finalized by the end of the year, but also the fiscal responsibility law that provisions the drafting of the budgetary framework on the medium-term.
Bogdan Balthazar: It's possible we will register economic growth in 2010
Financial consultant Bogdan Balthazar stated yesterday that the IMF forecast on the stabilization of the Romanian economy at the end of 2009 and on a growth of 0.5 - 1 per cent in 2010 is possible, Agerpres informs. The earmarking of the installment that Romania expects in September for the reduction of the budget deficit is an extreme measure that clearly violates a series of obvious rules because the money from the IMF generally have to go to the National Bank and not to the budget. But in the context of the significantly worsening economic situation and that of the GDP drop of over 8 per cent, only an extreme measure can be taken, Bogdan Balthazar stated.
Daianu: The impact of the crisis was underestimated
A considerably more severe recession, in contrast to the one premised in the construction of the budget, was predictable, MEP Daniel Daianu, professor of economy and former Finance Minister, stated for Agerpres. ‘The thesis that we could have absorbed the shock easier because we are an economy with an agricultural sector that has a big contribution to the GDP and because we have a less sophisticated financial intermediation system was appealing but a bit naive. What mattered was the way in which we could have compensated the credit freeze' Daniel Daianu opined.
Hossu: They should first cut useless expenses in administration
The Government should first cut the useless expenses in the public administration and improve the degree of collection, by eliminating the tax evasion, and only then should it take measures for curbing expenses with personnel, which should be first discussed with trade unions, the president of the ‘Cartel Alfa' unions confederation, Bogdan Hossu declared yesterday, quoted by Mediafax. According to the union leader, all measures aimed at curbing personnel expenses in the public sector should be taken only after talks with trade unions and following an analysis of the public sector. Referring to the statement of Finance Minister Gheorghe Pogea, on reducing working time from eight to six hours a day, Hossu said the method is used in Western countries, but the Government wants to take these measures "under pressure by the IMF." Hossu explained that the measure of compensating extra time by free days isn't correct, because the extra time is done at the request of the employer, rather than the employee.
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