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Current account deficit dropped 73.3 pc in H1

The current account deficit of the balance of payments amounted to EUR 2.37 bln in H1, down 73.3 per cent vs. the same period of the past year, Mediafax informs. However, the contraction is more reduced than that which was registered in the first five months, of 75.5 per cent, according to the data published on Wednesday by the National Bank of Romania (BNR).

"A determining influence on the reduction of the current account balance was exerted by the deficit of the commercial balance, which totaled EUR 2.962 bln, down 67.2 per cent over the first half of 2008," reads a BNR press release. The services had in the first half of the year a negative contribution to the current account deficit of EUR 29 M, after they supported in the same period of 2008 the decrease of the imbalance by EUR 377 M.

The current transfers continue to register a positive, although decreasing balance. Thus, they had a net contribution to the reduction of the current account deficit of EUR 2.12 bln, down 17.7 per cent against the surplus of EUR 2.57 bln in the period January-June 2008. On another hand, the revenues had a deficit of EUR 1.5 bln, some 46.66 per cent lower than the value of EUR 2.8 bln from the same period of the past year. The current account deficit from the first six months was entirely financed through direct investments of the non-residents in Romania, which totaled EUR 2.89 bln, down almost 43 per cent compared to EUR 5.7 bln registered in the same period of 2008. In the value of the foreign direct investments, the intra-group credits represented 49.7 per cent, the participation to capital 40.9 per cent, and the reinvested profit 9.4 per cent.

The medium and long term foreign debt registered on June 30 the level of EUR 57.237 bln, accounting for 75.8 per cent of the total foreign debt, up 11.7 per cent against the end of the past year.

The increase of the foreign debt was determined chiefly by the loan from the International Monetary Fund, respectively the first tranche, which totaled 4.37 bln special drawing rights, evaluated at the end of June at EUR 4.8 bln.

The analysts interviewed by Mediafax have different opinions about the adjustment of the current account deficit in 2009, their estimates pointing to an imbalance between 4 and 6 per cent of GDP for this year.

Nicolaie Chidesciuc, senior economist ING Bank Romania, anticipated a current account deficit of 4 per cent of GDP for 2009, which will be covered in a proportion of 85 per cent by the foreign direct investments of around EUR 4 bln.

The chief economist of Raiffeisen, Ionut Dumitru, considers that the current account deficit will be 5.5 per cent of GDP in 2009, and will be financed in a proportion of 70-80 per cent through foreign direct investments, which will total EUR 4.5 bln.

BCR chief economist, Lucian Anghel, anticipates that the current account deficit will drop to 5-6 per cent of GDP in 2009, respectively EUR 5-6 bln.

"The current account deficit will be covered almost entirely by the foreign direct investments which will be around EUR 4.5 bln. We should mention that, starting this year, the investments are no longer included in the subordinated credits of the financial and banking institutions. If the methodology was preserved, the current account deficit would have been entirely covered by investments," Anghel explained. On another hand, the chief economist of UniCredit Tiriac Bank, Rozalia Pal, expects a reduction of 50 per cent of the current account deficit, to EUR 8.5-8.6 bln, and foreign direct investments of EUR 4.4 bln.

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Tags: current deficit account investments foreign direct first which period bcr ing bnr

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