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While, France, Germany got out of recession, Romania ranks four in EU in terms of GDP decrease.

The economy has deepened its fall in the second quarter to 8.8 per cent vs. the same period of 2008, from 6.2 per cent in the first three months, but has limited its contraction compared to the previous quarter to 1.2 per cent, Mediafax informs. At the same time, the GDP from the first half of the year points to a reduction by 7.6 per cent.  

"According to the first estimates regarding GDP evolution in the second quarter, the latter dropped by 1.2 per cent vs. the first quarter. According to the early estimates, compared to the relevant period from 2008, GDP registered a fall of 8.8 per cent in the second quarter 2009 and of 7.6 per cent in H1," reads a press release of the National Institute of Statistics (INS) regarding the "signal" estimates for GDP.

The data regarding GDP evolution are below the expectations which pointed on average to a shrinking of the economy of 9.4 per cent in Q2.

In 2008, Romania registered the biggest economic growth in the European Union of 7.1 per cent. In the first quarter of this year, the economy contracted by 6.2 per cent against the same period of the past year, the sixth decline of GDP at EU level, because of the more marked falls in agriculture and industry. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2008, the economic decrease was of 4.6 per cent.

According to the public finance minister, Gheorghe Pogea, the economic contraction will continue in the last quarters of this year, but the dynamics will be more moderate in the last period of the year.

Average fall of GDP in EU of 4.8 pc

The fall of 8.8 per cent of GDP in Romania in Q2 compared to the same period of the last year represents the fourth decline in EU compared to an average of 4.8 per cent at the level of the 17 states which reported the data to Eurostat for centralization.

The more significant contractions of the economy were registered in Q2 in Lithuania (-22.6 per cent), Latvia (-18.2 per cent) and Estonia (-16.6 per cent), at the opposite pole being Greece (-0.2 per cent), Cyprus (-0.7 per cent) and France (-2.6 per cent), reads a press release of the Statistical Bureau of EU, Eurostat.

Thus, the EU average points to a 4.8 per cent shrinking of the economy of the community block in Q2 against the same period of the past year, vs. -4.7 per cent in the first three months of 2009, and -1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Thus the EU economy has closed the third quarter in a row of recession.

Insofar as the quarterly data are concerned, Romania ranks fifth in EU according to the dimension of the contraction of the economy, with a decrease of 1.2 per cent of GDP in April-June compared to January-March.

The most severe quarterly contractions were registered in Lithuania (-12.3 per cent), Estonia (-3.7 per cent), Hungary (-2.1 per cent) and Latvia (-1.6 per cent), while Slovakia obtained the most significant economic growth in EU, of 2.2 per cent.

Germany and France, the biggest European economies, reported GDP growths of 0.3 per cent each in Q2 compared to the first three months of the year, being officially out of recession, much to the surprise of the economists and also of the governments.

Raiffeisen: GDP to decrease also in Q3

Romania's GDP will register in the third quarter a fall similar to that from April-June, while the economic contraction could stop in the last three months of 2009, Raiffeisen anticipates, modifying the GDP annual contraction prediction from -6 per cent to -8.5 per cent. The risks connected with this scenario point to as negative perspective, shows Raiffeisen analysis, according to Mediafax.

Thus, the GDP will contract in quarterly terms (vs. the previous quarter) and in the period July-September, probably at a rate similar to that from Q2. "We also expect the decline of the economic activities to cease in the last quarter. Obviously, the risks of this scenario continue to point to a negative perspective," the Austrian bank stresses.

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