Stiri	Stiri afaceri	Stiri companii	Evenimente de afaceri

ING estimates 5.7 pc inflation by year end

ING revised the inflation forecasting for the present year and anticipated an annual rate of growth of consumer prices of 5.7 per cent at the end of 2009, vs. the previous estimate of 6.3 per cent, on the background of a more severe economic contraction, of 7.9 per cent, and a more stable RON/EUR rate than it had been anticipated.

"These two factors, alongside the reduction of some regulated prices, motivate the revision of the forecasting," reads an ING analysis, taken over by Mediafax. Moreover, ING anticipates an inflation rate of 5.5 per cent at the end of the next year and considers "too optimistic" the predictions of the National Bank of 4.3 per cent for 2009, and 2.6 per cent for 2010. "A feeble agricultural year should conduct to the rise of food prices until July next year, and the reductions of some regulated prices will probably fully reverse in 2010. Moreover, the relaunching of the world economy will translate also in the growth of the prices of commodities," ING warns.

In the opinion of the analysts of the bank, only a strong appreciation of the RON would compensate these negative factors, but such a scenario is rather improbable and would considerably affect the competitiveness of the Romanian economy on the export markets. "The monetary policy measures cannot reduce inflation in a sustainable way, as it was seen in the past few years," ING notes. The bank anticipates an average rate of RON 4.27/EUR this year, and an exchange rate of RON 4.5/EUR at the end of 2009. For the next year, ING expects an average rate of RON 4.44/EUR, with the appreciation of the national currency until the end of the first quarter to RON 4.6/EUR, followed by a steady depreciation in the other nine months. As for GDP, ING analysts estimate for 2009 a contraction of 7.9 per cent, followed in 2010 by a diminution of 0.6 per cent. For the third and fourth quarters 2009, they anticipate falls of 10 per cent and respectively 6.4 per cent.

Romania to come out of recession with unemployment at 10 pc in 2010

The unemployment level will move towards 10 per cent even if Romania recovers from the recession, while the possible wage hikes could be cancelled out by the inflation rate, Antena3.ro informs. At the end of 2008 Romania registered a number of 400,000 unemployed persons. In 6 monthsí time that number reached 550,000. According to the Raiffeisen Bankís prognoses, this fairly low unemployment level could reach 8 per cent at the end of 2009 and 9.5 per cent at the end 2010. "We stake on a stable exchange rate until the end of this year, maybe one with a slight upward trend. The exchange rate depends on international developments, on the coherence of internal economic policies and on respecting the IMF agreement," Ionut Dumitru, Raiffeisen Bankís chief-economist, stated.

Sursa: http://www.nineoclock.ro

Tags: prices inflation ing

Articole similare