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Inflation drops slowly but surely to 4.3% - the BNR prognosis

The annual inflation rate dropped in August to 4.96% as there was an important reduction in prices for vegetables and fruits, the BNR prognosis on inflation for 2009 of 4.3% becoming more realistic.

The analysed inflation should be reduced during the next four months by 0.66% percentage points to reach the prognosis of 4.3% at the end of 2009, as BNR said.

BNR recently revised the prognosis regarding inflation at the end of 2009 to 4.3% from the previous estimate of 4.4%. The analysts were surprised by the amplitude of the disinflation process of August, when the inflation rate dropped by almost 0.2 percentage points as compared to the previous month.

"Inflation dropped more than we expected but the reduction is due to the food prices evolution as a result of the seasonal effect" Laurian Lungu, managing partner for Macroanalitica stated for Wall-Street.

Consumption prices dropped in August by 0.19% against July, as food got cheaper by 1.06%, non-food got more expensive by 0.34% and the services tariffs went up by 0.32% according to the Institute for National Statistics.

« However, the prices to non-food and services went up, which suggests that inflation pressures have not disappeared » Laurian Lungu said.

In the consumption basket of the Romanians, which INS uses to calculate the inflation rate, food is 37.58%, non-food 44.05% and services - 18.37%.

« During the following period the drop in vegetables and fruits prices will contribute to the reduction of the annual rate of inflation but not very much. In a normal agricultural year, the reduction of food prices has an increased importance for inflation", Ionut Dumitru, head economist with Raiffeisen Bank said. The economist keeps his prognosis of 4.5% for the annual rate of inflation in 2009 but does not exclude the possibility that it might drop.

BNR revised the prognosis for inflation for next year from 2.8% to 2.6% and the inflation target for 2009 and 2010 is 3.5% plus or minus a percentage point.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: inflation prices bnr prognosis

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