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ING: Romania’s budget deficit might grow in 2009 to more than 7.7% of GDP

Romania's budget deficit may deepen at the end of 2009 over the ING estimate of 7.7% of GDP and over the target assumed by the authorities when the public deficit after eight months announced by the finance minister exceeded the expectations of the group.

."The fact that August date exceeded our prognosis increases the probability that the budget deficit for the whole year could exceed our prognosis of 7.7% of GDP which is over the target agreed of 7.3% of GDP agreed with IMF" the ING report published on Thursday shows.ING analysts estimated that Romania's budget deficit would reach 4.2% in August compared to 4.4% announced by the finance minister Gheorghe Pogea, on the rise by 0.9% of GDP compared to the previous month.Another argument for the worsening of the budget deficit over the target negotiated by the authorities with IMF is the future presidential elections.

"The future presidential elections (the first round will be on November 22) and the fact that in previous years the fiscal balance deteriorated toward the end of the year (in the last term of 2007 there was a budget excess of 0.2% of GDP for a deficit of 2.3% , while in 2008 the deficit accelerated from 1.4% to 4.9% of GDP) suggests that the public deficit could continue to grow" the ING report shows.ING considers that another reason of worry is the announcement made by a high official of the Finance Ministry who considers that arrears have grown by 0.5 billion lei in the first semester of 2009 to 1.5 billion lei. At present the government takes into account an economic contraction of 8.5% for this year and a GDP value of 497.3 billion lei, compared to the level of 531.5 billion lei foreseen previously. Last year Romania's GDP was 504 billion lei (136.8 billion euros).

 

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: deficit billion budget ing

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