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Citi: The leu will go down to 4.32 lei/euro before the end of the year

Citi revised the estimates regarding the exchange rate at the end of the year, from 4.18 lei/euro to 4.32 lei/euro but thinks the national currency will get stronger against the euro in 2010 as a result of the reduction of the political instability and the uncertainty regarding the implementation of the agreement with IMF.

The leu would appreciate against the euro the next year at 4.25 lei/euro in Q1 of next year, 4.2 lei/euro at mid =21010, 4.18 lei/euro at the end of Q2 and 4.15 lei/euro at the end of 2010, according to the Citi report.

The decline of the leu at 4.32 units against the euro is a depreciation of 10% of the national currency as compared to the end of 2009. The Citi projection relies on the availability and capacity of the National Bank of Romania ( BNR) to mention the exchange rate around the level of 4.3 lei/euro,the report says.

A substantial deviation from this presupposition would force the Citi analysts could revise the prognosis regarding the exchange rate. The leu drew the attention over the latest period, following the reports of an active presence of BNR on the foreign currency market and the increase of political uncertainty, due to the PSD withdrawal from the governmental coalition, the Citi analysts mention.

They expect a current account deficit of 4.8% of GDP in 2009 and 6.1% in 2010. After the announcement relating to the drop of the Boc 2 government the exchange rate went up to 4.3 lei/euro. The dealers suspect BNR that indirectly intervened on the market to stop the more abrupt depreciation of the leu. The stock exchange did not react to the information that the censure motion was accepted. The leu closed the trading session on Wednesday at 4.2940 - 4.2980 lei/euro, the level close to the end of the previous meeting. Romania has a stand-by agreement with IMF for two years, for the sum of 12.95 billion euro, the total package of foreign financing, from the Fund, the European Union, World Bank and BERD to reach 19.95 billion euro.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: euro exchange berd bnr

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