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BERD sees the current account deficit – 6% out of GDP in 2009

The deficit of current account of Romania will be adjusted at almost 6% of GDP in 2009 from the level of 12.3% of GDP in 2008 and FDI will drop by 64% in 2009 at 4.9 billion dollars, BERD estimates in the last transition report.

Thus, BERD estimates that the deficit of the payment balance of Romania will be 10 billion dollars in 2009 dropping against the foreign deficit of 24.5 billion dollars ( 16.88 billion euro) recorded in 2008.

« The deficit of current account was adjusted significantly this year, at about 6% of GDP against 12.3% in 2008, and helped to reduce the vulnerabilities and the improvement of risk perceptions. On medium term, Romania has positive growing perspectives, with a diversified structure of exports, strategic position and potential to recover as compared to the other states in the EU" the BERD analysts say.

According to the IMF estimates, the foreign deficit will record a correction of 5.5% of GDP in 2009 and in 2010 it will be 5.6% of the GDP. At the same time, the share of financing of foreign banks makes the country be vulnerable to capital output " which could have effect on the banking sector, companies and households".

« Despite all this, the risk is reduced by the strong support on the part of international financial institutions and the arrangement of parent-banks to the subsidiaries in Romania" the BERD analysts say.

As regards the banking sector, BERD considers that the main banks reacted well to the financial crisis.

« In general, the system is well capitalized, and the level of liquidity is appropriate. Until now, the majority of the banks succeeded to stand the recession. The support from the foreign banks, whose subsidiaries dominate the market, was crucial" the report shows. The report reminds the level of the qualified working force which, together with the taxing system represents the main difficulties of the business environment.

BERD estimates for 2009 a drop in the economy with 8% while in 2010, the economy should record an increase of 1%.At the same time, the budgetary deficit could be 7.3% of GDP in 2009, and inflation could be 4.5% according to the same estimate.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: banks deficit account berd current euro

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