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BNR : Unemployment and profits will react with delay of 6 – 12 months to the GDP drop

The trend to increase unemployment and drop profits of the corporations, reflected in the drop of banking profitability will be kept for another 6-12 months since the change of dropping tendency of the Romanian economy, the BNR vice-governor Cristian Popa said on Tuesday.

« I am the last to say that the problems have passed. We will have unemployment increase and drop in the profit of corporations, reflected in the diminution of banking profitability for another 6 months - one year after the inversion of the tendency to drop of the economy is confirmed and underway" Popa said.

On the other hand, he stated that banks should encourage the taking over of creditation in a sustainable manner and to contribute to rebuild trust.

The BNR vice-governor underlined that, despite the drop of the key interest from 10.25% at 8% for this year, the margins practiced by banks went up, which " does not make the central bank happy".

« The margins practised by the banks ( as a difference between credit interests and deposit interests) started to increase, despite the drop of monetary policy interest by the BNR, which is not a matter of joy. It is about, on the one hand,profitability. At the same time,the banks will continue the battle for resources, as the sums from parent-banks are not longer at disposal" Popa explained, in a seminar on financial themes.

On Tuesday, in the last meeting of monetary policy of this year, BNR kept the key interest at 8% per year and the present rates of the compulsory minimum reserves for lei and foreign currency at 15%, 30% respectively.

Economic contraction in 2009, below 8%

Romania's economy will register economic decrease of below 8%, deputy governor of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) Cristian Popa said . At the latest budget revision, at the end of August, after talks with the IMF, the Govt considered a drop in the GDP of 8-8.5%. Popa explained that the IMF initially anticipated an economic contraction of 10% in Q2 of 2009, but the drop was only of 8.7%.

Talks with IMF experts are held these days in Bucharest, and the international financial institution will revise the forecast for Romania.Popa said that the current account deficit would drop below 5% of the GDP in 2009, against 12.3% in 2008, and this contraction of 7-8% will be similar to that of the GDP contraction.

The BNR official emphasized the sustainability of a reduced current account deficit, at the same time with the resuming of the economic growth, given that in Romania the adjustment was made by decreasing imports and cutting investment in the private sector.Popa also pointed out that for 6 months to 1 year after the trend of economic drop is reversed, unemployment rate would continue to grow.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: economic banks months unemployment bnr

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