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Analysts: Inflation about 4.5% in October

Consumer prices rose again in October by 0.2-0.5% on the average compared to the previous month, following the depreciation of the leu and the rising price of oil, which increased the price of fuel, but the annual inflation continued to slow down at 4.2-4.5%, estimate analysts interviewed by NewsIn.

We expect a monthly inflation of 0.6% while we think the annual one will be 4.5%. We amended the prognosis after considering fuel prices which went up next to the depreciation of the leu. Moreover, we have already seen higher prices for food," the head economist of ING Bank Romania, Nicolae Chidesciuc said.

He estimates that at the end of the year inflation will be around 4.8% without excluding a temperate inflation but he does not think the National Bank will be able to reach the 2009 inflation target of 3.5%, plus, minus 1%.

"The central bank admitted there will be inflation pressures in the following months", he added.

The national currency depreciated in October by 1.08% compared to the previous month, the average rate being 4.2848 lei/euro from 4.2389 lei/euro in September.

The head of the research department of Volksbank Romania, Melania Hancila, has a similar estimate for the annual inflation in October of 4.5%.

"The main factors were the depreciation of the leu and the rising price of fuel, but there was also the delayed effect of higher excises for tobacco. We think that at the end of the year inflation will be 4.7% but we do not exclude reaching the superior limit of inflation target, according to our expectations", Hancila said.

The chief senior economist of Raiffeisen Bank, Ionut Dumitru estimates for October an average growth of consumer prices by 0.5%, which corresponds to an annual inflation of 4.4%. "October is a month when prices for food start growing", Dumitru said. For the end of December, the analyst sees an annual inflation of 4.5% identical to the BNR projection.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: inflation prices annual october bnr ing euro

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