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Romania gets out of recession quicker

Romania's economy will have positive values in the first quarter of 2010, according to Ion Ghizdeanu, the chairman of the National Prognosis Commission (CNP).

He does not exclude a positive evolution close to 0 even in the last quarter of 2009."Beginning with the first quarter of 2010, the economy will resume its rising trend. We may also have a positive growth in the last quarter of 2009, or anyway close to 0. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2008, economic contraction will be lower than anticipated , of 5-6% compared to the present projection of 7%, Ghizdeanu said, according to NewsIn.

Moreover, the head of CNP considers that Romania's GDP will reach 1-2% in 2010, compared to the present estimate of 0.5%, if the positive tendency maintains.The National Statistic Institute (INS) announced that Romania's GDP contracted by 0.7% in the third quarter against the previous one, while the decline was 7.1% compared to the same period of 2008.CNP estimated in the final autumn projection that Romania's economy will contract by 8.7% compared to the same period of 2008. The CNP estimate is higher even about the comparison to the second quarter, when a 1.2% economy drop was expected against the previous quarter.

The autumn projection, published at the beginning of this month, also estimated Romania's getting out of recession in the second quarter of 2010, when GDP would grow by 1.1% after s slight drop by 0.2% in the January-March period, compared to the last three months of 2009."For 2009, our prognosis was a GDP drop by 7.7% and took into account an economic stability in the second quarter. However, data are much better than our expectations," Ghizdeanu said.He mentioned, at the same time, that opinion polls made by CNP about the industrial activity of the last quarter of 2009 might indicate a "significantly better evolution of this segment, even if compared to the similar period of 2008."

"Initially, they spoke about a difference between the revigoration of EU developed economies and that of Romania by 6-8-10 months. The fact that the economy will recover quicker shows that Romania is well integrated and is answering to the signals coming from abroad", said the head of the Prognosis Commission pointing out that the main condition for a positive recovery of Romanian economy is that "the recovery begun in EU should continue"."This is one of the big uncertainties, the way in which EU economies continue to evolve, since Romania depends on foreign demand. The are other risks too, another unknown element being the price of oil, which has grown lately," Ghizdeanu added.

As for agriculture, the CNP chairman says this year's data could be "at the level of 2008 or higher", considering that 2008 had been a good farming year."Better data in the third quarter confirm that this recession is V shaped, a theory we and CE backed," Ghizdeanu concluded.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: quarter ghizdeanu compared positive economy recession romanias romania

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