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ING drops its estimates for the exchange rate evolution in 2010

ING revised the estimates regarding the evolution of the leu for next year and estimates an exchange rate of 4.40 lei/euro at mid -2010, according to the opinion of the analysts the appreciation of the national currency going up to 4.25 lei/euro at the end of the year, says NewsIn.

« We improved the estimates for the leu but we estimated a similar trend of the exchange rate. The probability of the leu more depreciated in the first term of 2010 appears from political risks as well as because the central bank is not ready to defend the leu with the risk of seeing the interests on the interbanking market going over 100%" the report says.

The estimates of ING analysts present the exchange rate at 4.35 lei/euro in a month, while towards the end of the first quarter of 2010, the leu will get to 4.45 lei/euro, according to the same prognosis. Early elections represent the greatest risk on short term, according to ING analysts " but the discussions of the latest days suggest the probability of such scenario disappeared", the report shows.

In exchange, the main reason of prognosis revision is " what seems to be a firm control of the central bank" on the exchange rate, the ING analysts say.« This situation could continue, but early elections and other delay in IMF loan could be too expensive, to be opposed" ( BNR says) the report mentions. On the other hand, ING analysts expect, according to the scenario that the following stage of the foreign loan from IMF to reach Romania in March 2010.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: analysts ing exchange estimates bnr euro

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