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BNR could be forced to intervene to depreciate the leu

The ING Bank Romania economists until now the most pessimistic analysts as regards the evolution of the rate, revised the prognosis on the exchange rate, the new estimates showing the euro will be traded at 4.15 lei in March and 4.1 at the end of 2010.

But, if the leu appreciates too much against the euro, the central bank should be forced to intervene, ING says. In the part, ING estimated that the level of the exchange rate will reach at 4.7 lei/euro in the summer of 2009 and 4.6 lei/euro at the end of the year, but the prognosis was far from the reality. The exchange rate ended the 2009 at approximately 4.22 lei/euro and the maximum of last year was 4.3127 lei/euro. Thus, at the beginning of the year, ING Bank Romania revised the prognosis for the exchange rate during 2010, estimating a level of 4.15 lei/euro at the end of the first quarter, then a depreciation of the leu towards 4.25 units/euro at mid year and coming back towards 4.10 units/euro at the end of 2010.

"In the case of significant improvement of the leu against the euro, on the basis of favourable profit and increase of the appetite for risk at global level, the economic activity could be affected. The reason is that the economy did not benefit from the depreciation of the leu and now could be confronted with increase of the currency. Under these conditions, the National Bank could be forced to intervene to depreciate the leu, this being the main reason for which we do not see the exchange rate under 4 lei/euro, without the exclusion of values under this level, with a temporary character" a report made by Nicolae Alexandru Chidesciuc, the head economist of ING Bank Romania says. The prognosis for the exchange rate was revised from 4.40 to 4.15 lei/euro for the end of the first quarter, from 4.40 to 4.25 lei/euro for mid year and from 4.35 to 4.20 for the end of quarter III and from 4.20 to 4.10 lei/euro for the end of 2010.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: euro exchange ing intervene could forced bnr

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