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OMV/Petrom 4Q 2009 Trading Statement

OMV's trading statement revealed group production figures in line with expectations at 327k boepd during 4Q 09 on average. Petrom's daily average production rate was slightly lower than expected at 187k boepd (we expected 190k boepd). As expected, the Romanian regulated gas price stayed flat in RON terms, the USD-denominated value being altered by FX rate development only.

The big negative surprise is the refining margin. While we had expected only 2% worsening of the margin qoq from USD 1.30/bbl in 3Q 09 to USD 1.28/bbl in 4Q 09, the reported margin was only USD 0.79/bbl. Reasons cited: Lower gasoline spreads and higher crude consumption costs at Petrom as a consequence of the rising crude price during 4Q 09. Refining sales volumes were slightly lower than expected at 5.30 mn tons, due to the shutdown of the Romanian Arpechim refinery in November following the unfavourable market environment. However, there will be a positive inventory effect in the quarter, again a consequence of the rising oil price.

Gas sales were not as weak as feared, group sales were 11% above expectations at 4.30 bcm, while Petrom also fared 10% better than our prognosis at 1.37 bcm. The cold temperature boosted sales especially at the gas retail affiliate EconGas.

Minorities will be affected negatively by seasonally lower results at Borealis and Petrol Ofisi. As reported earlier, the cancellation of the refinery modernization project at Petrom will cause special charges, which will be increased by further personnel restructuring costs in Romania. The total amount of net special charges will be around EUR 120 mn. 2010 hedging contracts capped at a price of USD 75/bbl burdened 4Q 09 EBIT by EUR 11 mn, while hedges established for 2009 will contribute positively to E&P 4Q 09 EBIT to the tune of EUR 33 mn. Finally, Petrom was subject to 2004-2008 tax revisions, for which new provisions of EUR 55 mn were booked in 4Q 09. In combination with higher E&P taxes, OMV group guides an unusually high tax burden for 4Q 09.

The negative surprise in the refining profitability and the new one-offs and taxes at Petrom lets us expect a negative reaction for both OMV and Petrom shares o this statement. It shows that the refining business is facing an even more challenging environment than expected. Additionally, the new one-offs at Petrom prove that the restructuring process in Romania is far from being over.

Sursa: http://www.rciro.ro

Tags: petrom expected statement

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