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Croitoru : We will get out of the recession later than other countries, once the trust comes back

Romania will go out of the recession with delay as compared to other countries and it will depend on what it happens in the European Union and in other big economies, as the trust of investors comes back, the decline of the GDP of 7.2% in 2009 after an advance of 7.1% in 2008 showing a forced landing of the Romanian economy.

'The economy dropped by 7.2% in 2009, after an increase of almost the same percentage in 2008. We warned the possible tough landing, especially after in 2007 and 2008 when the economic increase was not sustainable, but our messages were not taken into consideration' the adviser of the BNR governor Lucian Croitoru said at The Money Channel.

« For many from BNR and for the governor there is no surprise ( the economic contraction)we warned that Q1 of 2010 could show recession, the figureof 6.6% on the minus in Q4 shows that the period where the financial crisis affects Romania is longer than the initial estimate (..)' Croitorul explained for NewsIn.

He added that, once the reestablishment of the trust in the important countries of the world, the investors will come back in Romania as well, once the measures taken by the government won't scare the investors.

»Romania's coming out of the crisis depends on the what happens in the EU and in other countries in the world. Trust is most important. If trust in the developed countries of the world comes back,then Romania will benefit from it. The measures to be taken are known. Any innovation in this domain will create unbalance and mistrust' Croitoru said.

The BNR official added that, for 2010 he expected a timid coming back of the Romanian economy, move which would influence the current account deficit as well.

« For the first part of 2010 we will see recession, but much diminished as compared to QIV of 2009. The current account deficit which was very low in 2009 reflected the drop in the Romanian economy. Any time the economy grows the deficit gets to grow. In 2010, we will have a very timid increase, I think that there is a slight current account deficit deterioration in 2010' Croitoru said.

The Romanian economy will have two engines : first exports and second domestic demand

Croitoru identified exports as the main engine of Romanian economy increase for the next period, engine to be followed by domestic consumption.

« The first engine of economic increase will be that of exports. The manufacturing industry which supplies much of exports, shows that the system has already started and it is a matter of wise withdrawal of the stimulus in the countries outside Romania. The second engine will be domestic demand, especially consumption. As soon as capital gets to Romania, consumption will be resumed' the central bank governor adviser said.

Croitoru also said that going out on foreign markets with an emission of Eurobonds is a good idea, even if the prices went up, as a result of the worries connected to the situation in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy.

« Costs for loans increased. On the other hand, it is good to be present on the market so that everybody gets to know you. If you are forgotten, costs increase' the adviser of the BNR governor said.

As regards the agreement with IMF in the sense of changing it from a stand-by agreement into precautionary agreement, Romania may have the money IMF has only if they need it, Croitoru warned ' not to get into the euphoric area'.

As regards inflation, Croitoru appreciated that the influence of excises increase will be felt only in February. The January inflation accelerated to 5.2% as a result of the increase of excises for tobacco, electricity and fuel.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: romania romanian economy increase croitoru comes recession trust other countries bnr

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