Stiri	Stiri afaceri	Stiri companii	Evenimente de afaceri

Exchange rate will be relatively stable next month

Some economic analysts anticipate a stable exchange rate for next month, around 4.1 lei/euro, while others consider there are pressures for the appreciation of the national currency and do not exclude a drop of the exchange rate below 4 lei/euro.

Ionut Dumitru, the senior economist of Raiffeisen Bank Romania and Nicolaie Chidesciuc, the senior economist of ING Bank Romania consider that the evolution of the exchange rate will be relatively constant next month, around 4.1 lei/euro, but have different opinions about the evolution of the exchange rate after that period of time.Dumitru explained that the appreciation of the leu since the beginning of the year to the present day took place on the background of the investors' improved feeling in international market, including Central and Eastern Europe, even if interest rates in the Romanian market have dropped substantially.

'The exchange rate will stagnate next month around 4.1 lei/euro. Variations of 1-2% are not relevant,' the Raiffeisen Bank economist considers.

He says the economic conditions of the leu are now much better than at the beginning of 2009, first of all because the relation productivity-wages and indicators of external vulnerability have substantially improved.Dumitru also points to the fact that even if from the fundamental point of view the leu has an appreciation potential, a rapid growth is not preferred in the conditions in which the engine which pulls the economy out of recession is export.

'The exchange rate will drop below 4 lei/euro in the last quarter of the year. If it drops quicker below that level I don't think it will remain there,' said the chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank Romania.

Chdiesciuc also considers that a stability of the exchange rate below 4 lei/euro may have negative effects on the economy.

He thinks that it is possible to reach 4 lei/euro but for a short period of time and anticipates that a correction will follow later, a slight tendency of depreciation in the next 3-6 months.'There are several correction reasons, but first we are talking about the possible opposition shown in BNR because Romania's economy has not recovered yet. Then, many central banks could announce the withdrawal of liquidities from the market, which could reduce the advantage of the leu and would place pressure for the depreciation of the national currency,' Chidesciuc explained.

At the same time he pointed out that if problems in Greece and the euro area persist, then the leu and other currencies in the area may suffer.The chief economist of BRD, Florian Libocor considers that it is possible to reach the rate of 4 lei/euro is possible, but it will be followed by a drawback.

'It is possible to reach 4 lei/euro and it could even be consolidated if the appreciation of the leu is correlated with economy. That could materialize in the next 30-60 days, but I think it will be followed by a drawback. Anyway this should increase expectations about the following evolution of the exchange rate,' Libocor considers.

Lucian Anghel, from BCR says the level of the exchange rate will drop below 4 lei/euro but 'the later that happens, the better.''I hope the leu will not drop below 4 lei/euro in a month, although appreciation pressures are high, especially in the period of Easter celebrations,' Anghel said.

He considers that there will be pressures for the appreciation of the leu in the next period of time, but mentioned that it is very important to see how the central bank will use the regime of controlled floating of the rate.

Anghel showed that BNR has more levers to stop a depreciation of the leu than to stop the appreciation of the currency when currency reserves are in excess.'BNR might have verbal or other interventions, but at a certain moment there is a limit. The central bank could intervene to buy euro, but that means an increase of international reserves. That could also mean a buffer for the payment of funds taken from IMF,' the chief economist of BCR said.

The reference rate announced by BNR dropped on Thursday for the third time in a row, reaching the minimum level of 4.0653 lei/euro, although the leu has tempered its appreciation.

The national currency has significantly appreciated as a result of foreign exchange sales. The BNR rate dropped below 4.08 lei/euro, a level which has not been reached since January 2009.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: euro exchange considers possible economist could below month appreciation currency bnr bcr ing bnr brd

Articole similare