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The Greek crisis and the investors’ sensitiveness lowered the leu

The exchange rate took the Romanians by surprise, as they expected to buy a euro for 4 lei at Easter, but the feeling of the investors, the movement on the foreign currency market and the tension produced by the crisis in Greece led to the depreciation of the leu, the exchange rate going up to 4.1425 lei/euro from 4.065 lei/euro.

The national currency went up in March, the rate going down to 4.065 lei/euro and even lower on the interbanking market, but the advance obtained against the euro was lost in 12 days, which the exchange rate went up to 4.1425 lei/euro, level close to that of 21 January, according to the reference published by the central bank.

The ING economists explained the leu decline as being caused by the drop in the stock exchanges in Asia and Europe, but they do not disconsider an intervention on the part of the central bank. ' We think the leu could depreciate taking into consideration the stock exchange in Asia had decreases, and the ones in Europe expected to open in decline' Vlad Muscalu, economist with ING explained in a report.

« The rigidity to appreciation pressure can be the consequence of probable foreign currency intervention of late. The national currency reached 4.14440 /euro in the first part of Monday, losing more than 100 points, but it had a correction, and at the end of the day the leu was traded for 4.1315 /euro', Muscalu said. The ING rate prognosis suggests that the euro will get to be traded with 4.15 lei at the end of Q2 this year.

The analyst Laurian Lungu, managing partner with Macroanalitica says that such fluctuations on the exchange rate are normal, and their amplitude is not important. He added that he doesn't see any pressure of depreciation for the leu during this period of time.

The leu depreciated in the yesterday session by 0.29%, the rate going up by 1.2 bani, and during the last two weeks the national currency lost 1.86% against the European currency. As a whole, as compared to the beginning of the year when the exchange rate was 4.2265 lei/euro, the national currency appreciated by 1.98%.

« The depreciation came as a result of the uncertainties connected to Greece. Until two days ago nobody knew was was going to happen to Greece, the investors were very sensitive to this topic and the emerging currencies depreciated' Dragos Cabat, member in the CFA Romania leadership said.

The European governments and the IMF decided to offer Greece a saveguard package worth 45 billion euro with interest under the average on the market, in the attempt to fight the fiscal crisis the Greek government has to face and to give trust back in the European currency.

After the announcement of the saveguard plan an appreciation of the emerging currencies was expected, but the data regarding the situation of the current account of the balance of payment of Romania did not favour the leu, Dragos Cabat explained. The deficit of the payment balance sheet of Romania started to grow in February, reaching 754 million euro after the first two months.

« There are no economic reasons for the leu to get depreciated. I hope the trend to U-turn as soon as possible.' Dragos Cabat said. At the end of yesterday meeting, one euro was traded on the interbanking market at 4.1345 – 4.1435 lei.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: currency crisis euro exchange investors euro ing