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Eureko: Exports is an the essential ingredient for the economic recovery

Romania could see its gross domestic product stay 0.5% below year-ago level or grow 1% depending on the second-half economic performance of the country and how global markets are charting a path to recovery, said the Investment Director at Eureko Pensii, Radu Craciun.

The growth of Romanian economy will be driven by foreign demand, which is why the National Bank of Romania intervenes in the forex market to keep the national currency at a medium level, and avoid a sharp appreciation.

An exports-driven economic recovery will increase Romania's reliance on the euro area's economic outlook, Radu Craciun continued. 'Romania will lag EU nations in economic recovery'.'More and more recent forecasts indicate a return to growth at year-end. I expect the GDP reading to come in at -0.5% or 1% at the end of the year', Radu Craciun said.

The first quarter is not relevant to the full-year economic performance, he added, and the economic situation of Romania will largely depend on global markets.'Earlier predictions suggested a return to positive territory as soon as this quarter, but now, not even the forecasts for the quarter are plausible', Craciun stressed.Eureko's Investment Director anticipates a greater pressure on the appreciation of the national currency in summer and a depreciation trend at the end of the year.

According to Craciun, Romania will not be able to report growth in the first quarter of the year and I expect negative yearend results, with a decrease between 0.5% and 1%, since a series of measures with a macroeconomic impact have yet to be applied.He added it's hard to think that consumption would grow as long as unemployment widens and lending revival is delayed.'Those who took out loans will not borrow again. In fact, people are trying to repay their loans as soon as possible, to relieve themselves of the payments. Lending might be resumed in the third quarter of this year,' Craciun said.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: economic quarter craciun recovery euro

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