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UniCredit : Romania will have an economic growth of 0.4% this year and 3.5% in 2011

Romania will record this year an economic growth of 0.4% followed by an advance of 3.5% in 2011, according to the estimates included by UniCredit in a report regarding the situation of the banking system in Central and Eastern Europe (ECE) after the recession.

As a whole for the 17 states included in the ECE UniCredit anticipates an economic growth of 2.8% this year and 4.1% in 2011.

The vulnerability of the states in the region at the crisis of Greece debts varies from one country to another, the report « CEE Banking : The New Model out of the crisis' shows. Thus, Romania, Poland, Hungary and the Baltic countries have a high vulnerability, being affected, indirectly through the high level of the budgetary deficit and public debts. In exchange, the direct vulnerability, through the banking systems, is average in the case of Romania, Bulgaria and Serbia.

UniCredit anticipates that Romania could adopt the euro the earliest in 2015, as at present they cover only five necessary conditions to adopting the single currency, a level of public debt under 60% out of the GDP.

The other conditions include the consumption prices to be at most 1.5 percentage points over the average of the best developed three countries, and the profit of bonds not more than one percentage point of the average of the best three countries.

At the same time, the budgetary deficit must be under 3% of GDP; the exchange rate must be stable in the ERM2 ( the European mechanism of exchange rate) for two years.

The report shows the convergence process in the ECE region continues with a rebalanced economic model.

The Greek crisis confirms the end of the reduced cost of risk insurances and underlines the vulnerability factors, especially in Southern-eastern Europe.

The financial sector in ECE is an opportunity, but the rebalance of the model of banking operations is necessary.

UniCredit considers that the continuous demand will be influenced by the crisis of loans, but the quality of loans will be stabilized gradually.

Coming back to normal activities takes time and 2010 will continue to be a difficult year, but the perspectives of profitability on a long term are kept.

According to the report Russia, Turkey and Romania offer the best report in the region between opportunities and risks, while other countries in Central Europe are more mature markets.

UniCredit confirms in the report published with the occasion of the annual reunion of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (BERD) that it will be a strategic investor dedicated to the ECE region where it obtained a net profit of 438 million euro.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: report unicredit growth economic romania berd euro

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