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EBRD Study: Romania, Bulgaria are the only EU members with negligible growths in 2010

The economic growth in Romania and Bulgaria will be negligible or even negative in 2010, shows the Regional Economics Prospects study released by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in Zagreb on Saturday.

The recovery has begun, but it remains fragile and it will generally be slower that in other emerging markets, says the three-yearly report targeting the 29 countries acting in the EBRD.

The bank says the recovery will continue to be sluggish and that the volatility in the Western European markets adds to the risks in the South Eastern European area in particular. 'The deep recessions of late 2008 and 2009 continue to have knock-on effects in the form of high non-performing loans and unemployment, which constrain credit growth and the recovery of domestic demand', the document says. 'Encouragingly, the crisis in Greece has not had significant spillovers to the transition region so far', the authors of the study point out.

Even so, Romania remains one of the region's 'red flashlights', the study says. In Romania and Bulgaria, the fiscal constraints agreed upon up until now will affect the rise in the domestic demand, it adds. By contrast, in Croatia and other EU 10 states economic growths of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 are anticipated.

The growth of the Romanian GDP has been revised downward by the EBRD from 1.3 percent to zero, with the 2011 prediction standing at 3 percent; the indicator was minus 7.1 percent in 2009. The main risk factors taken into account by the study authors are the FX domestic crediting put at 24 percent in Romania, of which 11.8 percent is in the corporate sector and 12.2 percent in the household sector.

Another risk factor is the public debt, with the short-term one in Romania being 27.7 percent. The banking system is solid, with assets totalling 58.7 percent of GDP, but the foreign banks account for 87.7 percent of the Romanian banking market.

Even though the EBRD anticipates a zero growth of the Romanian economy this year, a comparison of Q4 of 2010 with Q4 of 2009 indicates a possible growth in this fourth quarter at 2.6 percent and an annual inflation rate at 3.8 percent.The report was made public by the EBRD Chief Economist Erik Berglof in Zagreb on Saturday, Agerpres reports.

Romania will be able to join euro zone when it meets criteria

Romania will be able to enter the euro zone when it meets all the criteria, the European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said in Zagreb on Saturday at the Jacques de Larosiere conference - a traditional event at the EBRD Governors General Meeting.

The European Union is an organisation based on rules and Romania must meet all the convergence criteria to enter the euro zone, said Rehn.He underscored the rules are the cornerstone of the European building, because the Union does not have a common history or common cultural traditions. The respect for the rules replaces such traditions and all members enjoy equal treatment, without 'shortcuts' to the euro zone, he added. Romania must cope with challenges now and the EU is committed to supporting it, the commissioner stressed.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: european percent study growth bulgaria romania euro

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