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Real GDP back to positive territory

According to the flash estimates released by the National Institute of Statistics, real GDP increased by 0.3% q/q (s.a. data) in 2Q10.

The annual growth rate remained negative at -0.5% y/y. Our estimation was –1% y/y, while market consensus stood at -1.3%.

No further details were presented. Real GDP was probably helped again by high exports to Euro Zone countries. Besides the support of the external demand, in June retail sales entered positive territory in annual terms for the first time since the onset of the economic recession in 4Q08. As a result, the support offered by households consumption to real GDP was probably stronger as compared to the previous quarters. Government consumption remained depressed due to the ambitious fiscal consolidation program followed under the stand-by arrangement with the IMF.

Real GDP could enter again negative territory in 3Q10 due to the deep cuts in public expenditures and the recent hike in VAT. However, the austerity measures are likely to be absorbed rather quick by the Romanian economy and we expect a slow and constant upward trend in q/q terms beginning with 4Q10.

We maintain our forecast of -3% for 2010 but we acknowledge that the probability of a slightly better performance of the Romanian economy has increased. All in all, today's data suggest that the end of the economic recession could be near.

Sursa: http://www.bcr.ro

Tags: territory euro

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