ING : There is much chance for the government to fail before the end of the year

The analysts show that premier Emil Boc changed six ministers, including that of finances.

« We see no risk for the agreement with IMF yet, but the political instability is growing. The government reshuffling was more important than initially anticipated by the press but it does not involve any risk for the agreement with IMF' the ING Bank economists say.They discuss the fact that IMF officials came to Romania at the end of 2009 when there was no government and stated they negotiate with the state not with a party.« Moreover, the premier is the same and eventually, he is the one who decides regarding the agreement with the IMF and the EU. Moreover, Romania is not in the situation to give up the agreement with IMF, irrespective of the party in the government' the bank's analysts say.

They consider the government reshuffling shows the fact that existing tensions in PDL are growing, and the opposition announced its intention to put down the present government by the use of several motions. « If the opposition succeeds in putting down the government, then a new temporary government is going to appear and by-elections at the beginning of 2011. As a result, we think the chances the government fails by the end of the year gradually grow. The political trouble could intensify significantly in October-November and should expect some pressure as to the depreciation of the leu and new increase of profit during that period' according to ING. The analysts consider that it is a matter of time until the minister of finances starts to pay yields of over 70% for the issued bonds.

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