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Analysts anticipate average exchange rate of 4.3 lei/euro and key interest rate of 6-6.25% in 2011

The Romanian Commercial Bank anticipates an average exchange rate between 4.1 and 4.3 lei/euro for next year, while the inflation rate will drop to 4% of GDP at the end of 2011, close to the target foreseen by the National Bank of Romania, while monetary policy interest rates will reach 6% in the second half of 2011.According to the senior economist of BCR, Lucian Anghel, the inflation rate estimated by BNR until the end of 2010 is 8.2%.

'According to our estimates at the end of the year the 8,2% level represents a correct estimate. In January 2011, we should have a 7.1% level and 4% at the end of next year. The latest BNR projection for the end of 2011 is 3.4%. Hence we conclude that interest rates can be reduced. We do not see an appreciation of the national currency in the conditions in which we see an exchange rate of 4.1-4.3 lei/euro,' Anghel said. He added that on the background of salaries reduced by 25% the exchange rate could be 3.5-3.6 lei/euro at the most at the end of the year.'

He mentioned at the same time that the monetary policy interest rate of BNR may reach 6%.

'Although the economy may have positive figures in 2011, in point of domestic demand we could not speak about that. There are chances that we had a monetary policy of 6% at the end of 2011.

In his turn Ionut Dumitru, the senior economist of Raiffeisen Bank and chairman in the Fiscal Council, anticipate a drop of interest rates in the market and a monetary policy interest rate maintained at the present value of 6.25% even in 2011.

'In 2011 we see a dropping tendency and a monetary policy interest rate of 6.25% by mid year. I tend to believe that as long as the exchange rate is not depreciated interest rates will be very low. Market cash will be big and will even grow with the relation of the Finance Ministry. Most likely BNR will have to keep the monetary policy of 6.25% because of inflation. Let us not forget that Romania has the highest inflation in EU, ' Dumitru explained.Raiffeisen Bank anticipates an exchange rate of 4.3 lei/euro by mid 2011, an exchange rate of 4.3 lei/euro and a monetary policy interest rate of 6.25 at the end of 2011.

Florian Libocor, the senior economist of BRD pointed out that there will not major changes in the key interest rate, although bank estimates show its value could be 6% in the first half of the year.

'We will see major movements of the key interest rate in 2011. As for Romania the Central Bank may resume the cycle of monetary relaxation. As for the exchange rate, the BRD official pointed out that there will not be official depreciation of the leu, with an average exchange rate of 4.2-4.3 lei/euro for June 2011.'Romania will grow with foreign money. Investors are looking for stability and predictability. Unfortunately things change in Romania without warning. I don't think we should worry about a depreciation of the leu. I think we will need at least three years to feel positive changes, on condition that adequate economic measures are applied,' Libocor declared.

Volksbank Romania foresees a modest appreciation of the national currency to 4.2-4.3 lei/euro by mid 2011 and an inflation rate of 4.5% of GDP at the end of 2011.'The prediction of 3.4% inflation rate made by BNR for 2011 seems rather optimistic. We see an inflation of 4-4.5%. The appreciation of the national currency will not induce a disinflation trend,' said Melania Hancila, head of the Research & Strategy Department Volksbank Romania.

On the other hand, Hancila mentioned that for next year, Volksbank sees an important appreciation of the Swiss franc against the leu, and and average exchange rate of 3.26 lei for the Swiss currency.

'We see a strengthening of the Swiss franc against the leu and estimate a rate of 3.26 lei for next year. There is no reason to see a depreciation of the franc against euro. It is true that CHF will not strengthen too much compared to euro considering the decision of the Bank of Switzerland to maintain a balance, the Volksbank representative concluded.

Finance Trainer International, one of the most important consulting companies in Europe, organized a new edition of 'Romanian Finance Symposium' in Bucharest. Lucian Anghel, senior economist of BCR, Ionut Dumitru, senior economist at Raiffeisen Bank and chairman of the Fiscal Council, Florian Libocor, senior economist of BRD, Groupe Societe Generale were among the participants in the symposium.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: policy senior economist bnr average monetary exchange romania euro inflation interest brd bcr

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