Stiri	Stiri afaceri	Stiri companii	Evenimente de afaceri

XTB : leu – good perspectives in 2011

Romania's getting out of recession this year will have a positive effect on the national currency, as a possible new agreement with IMF and the listing of Proprietatea Fund according to a report of X-Trade Brokers. In 2010, the leu was stable against the euro, with a modest depreciation of 1.02% but the national currency depreciated significantly ( over 8%) against the American dollar.

The worries of the first part of last year – at the beginning as regards Greece, then extended to Ireland, Portugal and Spain – made the dollar get better against the euro, having important advance against the leu, the XTB analysis shows.

In its turn, 2011 started in a way that shows the continuation of worries connected to financing in certain European states, this being important on the European single currency. The trend registered in January this year was favourable to the Romanian leu, against the euro, as the signs regarding a new agreement with IMF were given. Moreover, the expectations of the business environment for this year are more optimistic, and an index of trust in economy based on a EC survey showed an improvement of the perception, from 81.1 to 81.6 points.

« The Romanian economy could get out recession during this year and the market take into consideration this aspect, by stabilizing the « appetite » for the leu. A potentially positive effect on the national currency could be the near listing of Proprietatea Fund which could draw foreign funds to the capital market, after a very long pause. If the trading volumes are considerable – and there is chance for that – then the sums allocated to the Proprietatea Fund and the capital market could increase, by creating a positive flow, although not very spectacular, towards the Romanian leu » Victor Safta, the manager of the Romanian branch of X-Trade Brokers said. At the same time, observance of some points in the IMF agreement, among which the thorny issue of debts, is still a possible question mark.

« The National bank could choose the way of gradual decrease of interest rate, but only as long as it would not affect the exchange rate. A level of 4.1 – 4.3 lei /euro could be accepted by BNR, but a risk factor is the evolution of the crisis due to the debt in Europe » Victor Safta says.

The Swiss franc recorded in 2010 a considerable appreciation against the Romanian leu, under the conditions where turbulences in the euro zone and the policy of the Federal Reserve led to the increase of interest for the Swiss franc, seen as « refuge »asset.

This evolution was unfavourable to those who had mortgage loans in Swiss francs, leading to the deterioration of the quality of assets of certain banks, the X_Trade Brokers show.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: could against romanian euro bnr