Inflation rate at 8% y/y in 2010
BCR Research - 12 Ianuarie 2011
Monthly inflation came in at 0.5% in December, slightly below our expectations. NBR's target for 2010 of 3.5% ± 1pp was missed mainly because of the hike in VAT which became effective as of July. However, the performance indicator agreed with the IMF for the annual inflation rate was reached.
The prices of food products went up by 0.8% m/m in December, non-food products by 0.6% while services remained flat taking the full advantage of the stability of the RON.
Today's data is better than NBR inflation forecast of 8.2% in 2010. Considering that real GDP is still in the negative territory and Romania will very likely reach another agreement with the IMF and EU in February or March, the central bank could resume the monetary easing at the next meetings. We maintain our key rate forecast for end-2011 of 5.75%.
Sursa: http://www.bcr.ro
Tags: inflation
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