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Financial-banking analysts skeptical that Most members of the Romanian Association of Financial-Banking Analysts (AAFBR) are skeptical of Romania's capacity to meet the budget deficit target agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund and the Europe

Most members of the Romanian Association of Financial-Banking Analysts (AAFBR) are skeptical of Romania's capacity to meet the budget deficit target agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union; the experts expect the budget deficit to stand this year around 5 pct of GDP, compared to target of 4.4 pct of GDP.

Even under these circumstances, the deficit is expected to narrow considerably in 2011 compared with the previous year, shows data collected in a survey conducted among AAFBR members regarding the main macroeconomic and capital market indicators in 2011.

According AAFBR, all respondents in the survey expect economic growth to resume in 2011 (the median is 1.2 pct), but also inflation to stay high, although substantially down from the end of 2010. The surveyed experts estimate an inflation of 4.3 pct in December 2011, which exceeds the upper limit of the variation band envisaged by the National Bank of Romania.

Regarding the change in the monetary policy interest rate, with just one exception, all participants in the survey said they expect it to be lowered in 2011.

Although the respondents see the current account deficit expressed as percentage of GDP to rise slightly, they also expect a better performance of foreign investments this year compared to 2010.

AAFBR is a professional non-profit association founded in January 2008, which joins more than 60 analysts in the sector of banking, pension funds, investment management companies, insurers and capital market.

Sursa: http://www.agerpres.ro

Tags: budget deficit target monetary aafbr association banking analysts skeptical members financial

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