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Admiral Markets Report: The leu will end year with slight growth

The fight of exporting nations for a weak currency will appreciate the leu, but on the other hand the monetary policy prospects are negative for 2011 a study made by Admiral Markets on provisions of the evolution of the main currencies in the market this year shows.

According to the study, while at international level the market will take into account the return of the cycle of key interest rate increase, including in countries like Hungary or Poland, in Romania the central bank does not afford maintaining the key interest rate, not even at this level in order to relax crediting, while interest rate spread will drop.

The leu will be less performing than the zloty or florin against the euro , but could end the year in a slight appreciation. Against the dollar and franc it will be under pressure because of the status of refuge currencies in a crisis period, the document shows.Referring to euro, the report shows that 2010 was a negative year for the European currency, the depreciation versus major currencies being over 10%.

Despite bailouts and the support of the Central European Bank or of gthe International Monetary Fund, the euro has not offered confidence so far. The European economy is still fragile while economic growth will be affected by austerity measures implemented by rulers. The fear of contaminating the whole region will reduce the trust in the European currency whole the central bank will maintain the reference interest rate at the same level this year, the study shows.

According to the document, in these conditions euro will continue its downfall and will be quoted against the dollar between the most powerful historical level 1.25-1.26 and the average extreme quotations 1.21. However Admiral Markets does not exclude testing last year's lowest of 1.18.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: admiral markets euro

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