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Coface maintains Romania’s rating at B

Romania maintains its level B rating, non-suitable for investments, Coface Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia Country Cluster Manager Cristian Ionescu declared. Romania has been under a 'B' rating since June 2009.

Coface sees a shy increase for 2011, of 1.5% below the global growth anticipated at 3.4%. According to him « the growth will materialize only if we will not create problems ourselves– globally the situation is optimistic, it only depends on us In 2013 we will recover at the 2008 level – we lost 5-6 years Romania is not in a desperate situation but is dependent on foreign aid ».According to his estimates, inflation will be 5.2% in 2011 above the Central Bank's target, as a consequence of VAT increase. 'We can see that the prices of sugar and rice have increased to record levels, while oil prices have also gone up and chances are they will continue to grow. If you add the domestic factors that contribute to inflation, you will see an annual rate of 5.2% in 2011,' Ionescu said. Unemployment rate will increase as the reforms of the state will continue and lay offs in the budgetary system will not cease.Imports and exports increased and the commercial balance increased in 2010 compared to 2009 . Foreign debt doubled in the last three years from 44% to 80%.

Romania GDP Unlikely To Match 2008 Levels Until 2013

Romanian gross domestic product per capita is bound to remain below the 2008 level until 2013 or 2014, according to estimates of Coface ratings agency.Exports and industrial output will remain key factors for the economic growth in 2011, Coface said.It said household consumption is likely to remain weak throughout the year, largely due to low consumer confidence.Coface analysts estimated Romanian budget deficit is likely to reach 4.9% of GDP in 2011, above official forecasts of 4.4% of GDP.Ionescu also said the high level of government general arrears is likely to hinder the authorities' plan to narrow the budget deficit.

More Romanian Companies To Go Bankrupt This Year

The number of insolvent Romanian companies will continue to grow this year, because the economic environment is still not 'stimulating' enough, according to Coface Romania.'The insolvency trend will remain upward in 2011 as well. There are no premises for a stimulating economic environment. Companies that have struggled to stay on the market will not survive,' Thursday said Anca Catrina, credit risk manager at Coface Romania.

According to Coface data, there were 15,442 companies dubbed insolvent in the first nine months of 2010, with construction, retail and transport sectors topping the chart. Romanian trade registry data shows the number of companies dubbed insolvent last year reached 21,692, from 19,894 in 2009.

On the other hand, Coface representatives noted a decrease in the number of overdue payment notifications, which points to stability in the evolution of payment incidents.

'Payment delays are still frequent, but they can be controlled through correct credit management. Compared to 2009, the number of cases notified in 2010 dropped by 60%, and their cumulated value fell 75%,' Coface data shows. According to the company, liquidity remains low, but receivable volumes grow due to arrears found throughout the supply chain.'In 2011, we are expecting a gradual improvement in sales and profitability for companies, since costs have already been reduced. There will be new opportunities for procurement, investment and mergers,' Coface representatives said.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

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