Romania: 4Q10 real GDP – flash estimates

Our expectations were -1% y/y while market consensus stood at -1.5% y/y. 2010 ended thus with a negative economic growth of -1.2% but the results were better than market estimates.

No other details were presented. Households consumption was probably better than our initial estimates. As retail sales were still weak, it is very likely that agriculture played a key role in this respect with a positive contribution of selfconsumption and purchases on agri-food market. Net exports probably provided another important support to economic growth, boosted by foreign orders from outside the Eurozone area.

Today's data indicates that the end of a long and painful recession could be near. For the moment we maintain our forecast for 2011 economic growth at +1.2% but see chances of even higher growth if the mood of global investors perks up.