Stiri	Stiri afaceri	Stiri companii	Evenimente de afaceri

Erste CEE Macro Comments

PL Macro: January inflation showed a more pronounced growth of prices than expected. In m/m terms, prices grew by 1.2% and y/y by 3.8% (vs. the expected 3.4% and December's 3.1%), above the CB's target range (2.5% +/-1%).

For that reason, the central bank might seriously consider hiking interest rates already in March. The zloty reacted immediately to the data, firming to 3.92. We target 3.74 by year end.

RO Politics: Sources cited in the media said that the Romanian government could undergo an important reshuffle process in the near future to regain public support and defeat the opposition's plans regarding fresh no-confidence votes. President Basescu seems inclined to nominate a technocrat as a new prime minister. It is rumored that President Basescu met top NBR officials and offered them the PM position. A reinforcement of political stability would smooth the way for the new precautionary stand-by arrangement with the IMF and trigger appreciation of RON towards 4.1 by December 2011 (our forecast).

RO Macro: Real GDP increased by 0.1% q/q (seasonally-adjusted data) but remained in negative territory in annual terms at -0.6% y/y in 4Q10 (better than market had expected). Yesterday's data indicates that the end of a long and painful recession could be near. We maintain our forecast for 2011 economic growth at 1.2% with risks skewed to the upside. Higher growth would support our expectation of a strengthening RON.

CZ Macro: According to a preliminary estimate, Czech GDP rose in 2010 by 2.3%, in 4Q10 by 0.5% q/q (our expectation +0.8%). We expect EURCZK and 10y benchmark yields to remain stable around current levels for the duration of 2011.

HU Macro: Inflation data was lower than expected at 4.0% y/y (vs. our 4.4% expectation). The figures indicate that there is still no strong demand inflation in the economy. The data underpins our assumption that there will be no rate hike from the MPC this month. We forecast 10y benchmark bond yields to fall to 7% this year.

HU Macro: Yesterday, the 4Q10 GDP figures were mostly in line with expectations, which is a relief after the disappointment of the December industrial production release. Yearly GDP growth was 2.0%, putting the average 2010 growth at 1.2%, matching our forecast. We see EURHUF consolidating around current levels in 2011.

UA Macro: Ukraine's real GDP grew by 4.2% y/y in 2010, almost exactly matching market and our expectations. We forecast a similar growth rate for 2011 and higher money market rates.

UA IMF: IMF mission head Thanos Arvanitis made a statement yesterday summarizing the work of the two-week program review, confirming that the IMF and Ukraine agreed on most of the strategic issues for 2011 supporting our view of a stronger UAH vs the Euro in 2011. A new USD 10y Eurobond was announced yesterday. Price guidance 8%.

HR T-bills: This week's auction brought a familiar pattern, in the form of both solid market demand and hefty MoF supply translating into ca. HRK 900mn issuance and an increase of HRK 300mn in the short term debt stock. Interest for HRK papers dominated and T-bill rates inched down 10bps on 3M (2.35%) and 6M (3.35%) maturities, while 12M fell 5bps (3.95%). The 12M EUR-linked rate remained unchanged at 2.90% with issuance falling short of maturing volumes. We forecast flat markets in 2011.

Traders' comments:

RON: A poor 6m auction was the catalyst for selling interest. The MoF paid 6.55% in order to place a moderate RON 600 m; 27 bps more than they paid in the most recent 7m auction at the end of January. We have seen aggressive paying interest in the forwards with 1y up 10 bps to 5.20%.

PLN: Higher than expected CPI numbers galvanized the market. 2y IRS was taken at 5.27%; 13 bps higher than before the figure.

HUF: Macro data left the market cold as consolidation continues. HUF fixed income markets are largely unchanged.

SKK: Quiet ahead of the SD213 syndication.

CZK: Calm with slightly better selling interest in CZK bonds.

CEE CDS: Range-trading continues.

Sursa: http://www.erstegroup.com

Tags: forecast market macro interest expected growth euro

Articole similare