Erste Group First Impression 4Q 2010 -
Raiffeisen Capital & Investment - 25 Februarie 2011
Erste Group's 4Q result met our and consensus estimates on the bottom line but missed estimates on a pre-tax level especially due to the weak result of the Austrian Savings banks.
Net interest income was slightly weaker than estimated (-4% qoq) due to some one-offs regarding interest accruals. Obviously 3Q NII was slightly overstated and 4Q NII now slightly understated. NIM was under pressure especially in RO due to lower margin new business. Net fee & commission (+4% qoq. +8% yoy) was in line with estimates but the 4Q trading result was a bit weaker than expected. Operating costs were in line with expectations, but already well guided by the management.
The NPL ratio remained flat qoq at 7.6% and better than our expectation of still a small increase qoq. NPL development was especially good in AT (at Erste Bank Austria), CZ, SK, SE and in the large corporate segment where the NPL ratio was contracting while in HU, RO, UA and HR the NPL ratio was still expanding. Overall risk cost (-12% qoq, -27% yoy) were slightly better than expected on release in provisions in the Large Corporate segment and a good environment in Austria. NPL coverage was slightly down qoq at 60.0%. In line with expectation loan volume was up 1% qoq on the group level (strong in AT and in Large Corporates, but only flat in CEE – surprisingly contracting qoq in CZ).
From a segmental/regional perspective Erste Bank Austria, Large Corporate, CZ and SK segments were beating our estimates while RO, HU, UA and Austrian Savings Banks were below our forecasts.
In line with our expectation the proposed dividend remained unchanged yoy at EUR 0.65. There is no detailed outlook given by the management. At the first glance figures are not a big surprise overall and we stick to our 'hold' recommendation with a target price of EUR 41.30.
Sursa: http://www.rciro.ro
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