Stiri	Stiri afaceri	Stiri companii	Evenimente de afaceri

Erste CEE Macro Comments

Energy Net Imports/GDP: Net imports in million tons of oil equivalent/ GDP in USD (base year 2000) shows the energy dependence on outside sources of an individual country in relation to its economy. The chart allows a relative comparison among countries. Among the countries shown Ukraine is the most exposed to higher energy prices, the USA the least.

Analysts' views:

HU Bonds and Fiscal: Yesterday, the Debt Agency sold HUF 62.5bn (EUR 228mn) in 3Y, 5Y (2017/B) and 15Y (2028/A) bonds, HUF 17.5bn above the planned amount. Bids totaled HUF 193bn. The 5Y and 15Y bonds are new issues making a comparison of average yield levels to prevailing secondary market levels difficult. We saw a 2bp increase in yields on the 3Y bond. What we can say is that the strong demand is favorable in the current fragile international environment and still seems to show trust in the government's fiscal reforms which will be accounced on March 1. The package should trim the budget gap (>2% of GDP) that is expected to surface fully in 2013 resulting from generous tax cuts conducted by the government. We believe that the forint and bonds could firm this year from current levels if the package includes meaningful measures.

HR GDP: Today the flash GDP figures for 4Q10 will be published. We expect a contraction of -1% y/y after the 0.2% y/y growth in 3Q. Details will be announced afterwards, we do not expect major surprises with private consumption showing some recovery, investments remaining deep in negative region and net exports remaining supportive. For FY10 GDP we forecast a contraction by 1.4%, confirming the weak recovery trajectory.

Traders' comments:

HUF: Concerns over the Middle East pushed swap yields higher. The sort end of the curve saw a more pronounced move with 2Y IRS closing 7bps higher, so 2v10Y flattened by 2 bps whereas bond yields dropped by 5-8 bps along the whole curve after the good results of the bond auction.

PLN: Quiet day for bond markets, yields went up by 1-3 bps at low trading volumes.

CEE CDS: CDS are still not impressed by the continued sell-off in equities and managed to close unchanged.

Sursa: http://www.erstegroup.com

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