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Erste CEE Macro Comments

Saudi Arabian Stocks: The Tadawul All Share Index collapsed yesterday on rumours of protests planned for March.

Analysts' views:

HU Fiscal: Yesterday, EconMin Matolcsy announced the long awaited fiscal package which was disappointingly short on details. The financial sector tax is estimated to amount to HUF 180bn in 2012 vs. earlier plans of HUF 90bn. He added that, from 2013, corporate tax cuts will not be as generous as indicated earlier. However, the announcement that the cabinet will mostly rely on expenditure cuts is favourable. While the amounts announced seem to be enough to contain the deficit, there are still questions remaining regarding feasibility. We continue to expect slight appreciation of the forint and lower bond yields.

PL Rates: We expect the monetary council to keep rates unchanged today after NBP Governor Marek Belka said he would not worry much about a commodity related spike in CPI unless he sees some second-round effects and another prominent hawk, Adam Glapinski, said that he did not see any grounds for an immediate rate hike. We maintain our forecast of a 25bp rate hike in 2Q, most likely in June, and altogether +50bp by the end of this year.

CZ Debt: The Czech Finance Ministry announced that it will offer CZK 50bn worth of government bonds in seven auctions in the second quarter, CZK 10bn more than planned for the first quarter. We think that the yield curve is currently at fairly priced.

RO Bonds: The MinFin plans to sell debt worth RON 3.9bn on the local market in March, most of it short-term, vs. the RON 4.6bn sold in February. We see this plan as feasible given the positive outcome of the fiscal consolidation efforts (January ended with a budget surplus of 0.15% of GDP) and the prospect of a new stand-by arrangement with the IMF. The MinFin could tap international capital markets with a 5Y Eurobond issue of up to EUR 1bn in March. We remain bullish on Romanian bonds and see 5Y yields for RONdenominated paper at 6.8% in September.

HR T-Bills: The MoF successfully auctioned HRK 1.39bn T-bills yesterday, more than double the planned HRK 600mn, supported by strong investor demand (1.86 bid-to-cover ratio) that also helped to push 3M, 6M & 12M rates down between 8 and 10bps in spite of recent protests calling for early elections as liquidity remains more than ample.

Traders' comments:

CEE CDS: We started the new month in bullish mood yesterday morning (Hungary went 7 bps tighter) but the rally was soon over after rumours emerged about protests in Saudi Arabia and the announcement of the Hungarian austerity package disappointed markets. Equities had a lousy session overnight and the X-Over already opened 4bps wider, so expect a weak open in CEE this morning too. Watch 215-217 resistance levels in SovX CEE.

Sursa: http://www.erstegroup.com

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