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Will inflation fit in BNR target?

Raiffeisen and ING analysts consider less probable for inflation to fit in the BNR target of 3% +/- 1%, when the consumer price increase rate exceeded the analysts' estimates in February.

Raiffeisen considers that the BNR inflation target for 2011 is very optimistic and anticipates that the indicator would exceed even bank estimates of 4.5%, a bank press release shows.

At the same time ING notes that chances for inflation to fit the BNR target have dramatically dropped.

The inflation rate of 0.77% in February compared to January was higher than the average level of 0.5% anticipated by financial analysts, even the one expected by Raiffeisen.

The annual inflation rate in February of 7.6% exceeded market estimates of 7.3% and the level anticipated by ING – 7.2%.In this context, Raiffeisen anticipates that interest rates will be higher in the following period than previous expectations. The bank estimated that BNR would reduce the monetary policy interest rate from 6.25% to 5.75% in the second half of 2011, but now consider the possibility of this evolution is almost zero.

Raiffeisen sees the interest rate at the present level until the end of the year, the main BNR priority being to keep inflation under control.Analysts of both banks consider the leu might appreciate in the next period.

Sursa: http://www.actmedia.eu

Tags: inflation bnr raiffeisen target ing

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